Doc's Harmonic Stock Clock, staying ahead of the curve

Market is Waiting with Baited Breath for the Massive Government Pork Barrel Bailout

2009-02-09T00:18:00.008-05:00

There are 480 stocks which qualify for buying long trading with the signal lines. But which ones do you buy for short term trading?

I have screened the list down to 60 stocks. These should be profitable if you buy long the stocks, sell covered calls to buy puts at the next strike price below the red signal line or the yellow signal line, which ever is first. You have to screen the options for the best price vs. your risk tolerance. I would choose the March or April options to for quick profits.

Those who do not want to risk money buying long the stocks, can simply do a "chicken straddle" with theses stocks. Then

write a "chicken straddle spread", once the stocks move up or down 20%.

I posted a quick chart for you to look for others in the list of stocks.

The following list of stocks for further research.

Alphabetical order:

abc, abt,abx,aem,alxn, amag,amzn,apei, avav, awh, azo, bbh,bpl,cai,ceph,che,cmp,
cpla,csc,cwt,dgx,dv,ed,esi,ew,ffh,ghl,gild,gmcr,gold,hae,hei,hsy,hum,iau,lanc,lg,mant,mhs,mygn,navg,new,nflx,njr,nnds,orh,osip,pcg,rah,rmd,sji,slgn,stra,sxl,tdg,wlp,ww,wye,xom

Now, DO NOT JUST BUY LONG ON THESE STOCKS WITHOUT USING PUT OPTIONS, DUE TO THE VOLATILE NATURE OF THE ECONOMY. YOU COULD MISS YOUR STOPS AND THE STOCKS OPEN MUCH LOWER.

Good luck hunting for some profits.

God Bless

Doc

Doc's Harmonic stock Clock is intended for stocks, options, futures, commodities, and currencies trading.
This site should be used for Educational purposes only.
No advice is given. No recommendations given.
You are considered to be over 18 years old.
Doctraders Harmonic Stock Clock is based on technical market indicators which may predict short term and long term market trend reversals. Doctrader is not an investment adviser but has been involved in the markets since 1985. No system of trading or investing can prevent losses, you should do your own "due diligence" when determining the suitability of the information contained within this or other websites mentioned in this blog.

Use all Information on this site at your own risk.

God Bless

Doctrader

Great Depression or Recession

2008-11-06T11:28:00.009-05:00

By Doctrader

Ask Doc a question:

Is there one more all time high coming or are we already heading into the " Great Depression"? When is the BOTTOM? Thanks Paul

Hi Paul, Is there one more all time high coming or are we already heading into the " Great Depression"? When is the BOTTOM?

Thanks for your question.

The Short Answer:

We are heading into a recession which could turn quickly into a depression depending upon the actions of the baby boomers. If Feds ignite inflation, the market will be trading between the past highs last year and the lows set this year. If the market falls below the current lows this year on the Dow Jones Index of 7800 points, "the great depression era" bottom for the Dow Jones Index will be around 3600 points. Think it can't happen? See the Japanese Stock Market Chart.

The Long Answer:

History has shown us that all financial bubbles collapse at some point in time. Looking at history reveals, that human nature has not evolved since the last great depression. The political and economics circumstances that created the great depression are still present today. The Federal Reserve Banking system was involved in the last depression, cutting interest rates 8 times. Still, the depression was solved by new innovations and a world war.

It took nearly 24 years for the stock market to make new highs during the depression. The Federal Reserve is trying to re-ignite inflation by printing more money. If they succeed at inflating the economy, the market will move higher up to the previous highs for the Dow Jones Index of 14,000 points. A stock market advance upward will cause inflation.

Unfortunately, the ability to stop inflation is not an exact science. Remember the NASDAQ dot.com bubble, and the housing bubble that is currently collapsing.

To stop inflation, the Feds will have to increase rates dramatically which will stop inflation, but collapse the stock market. If they fail to stop inflation, we will have a "Wiemar Republic" economy causing hyper-inflation.

Neither choice is simple, inflation or deflation, but the deciding factor will be the baby boomers. Their demographics will determine if we have a great depression or a recession.

Currently, the demographics are unclear relating to the baby boomers, yet by Nov. 4th, when the elections are closed will there be riots on main street or a selling riots on Wall Street?

You are living in historical times, witnessing the Death of Capitalism and the birth of World Socialism/Marxism, "when good men and women do nothing." The future belongs to those who can see history.

Doc's Harmonic Stock Clock is intended for stocks, options, futures, commodities, and currencies trading.

This site should be used for Educational purposes only.

No advice is given. No recommendations given.

You are considered to be over 18 years old.

Doctraders Harmonic Stock Clock is based on technical market indicators which may predict short term and long term market trend reversals. Doctrader is not an investment adviser but has been involved in the markets since 1985.

No system of trading or investing can prevent losses, you should do your own "due diligence" when determining the suitability of the information contained within this or other websites mentioned in this blog.

Use all Information on this site at your own risk.

God Bless

Doctrader

Financial Markets Making You Nervous? Now What?

2008-10-20T11:02:00.019-04:00

If you ask me a question, I will answer it!

The categories include:

Financial : Stocks, Options, Commodities, Forex Trading...

Insurance: Life, Health, Auto...

Pension Plans: 401(k), Defined Benefits...

Financial Protection: Banks, Credit Unions, Mortgages

Legal Protection: Your Rights under the law...

Physical Protection : Legal system...

Firearms Training: Self-Defense training...

Survival Training: Urban Areas, Wilderness Areas...

Hi Doc,
I am interested in day trading the Emini S&P or Emini Dow. I have a copy of your book (HSC) and could use some help in trade entry and trade management. Is there anything you could help me with?

Hi Rod,

My underground trading book called the Harmonic Stock Clock ("HSC") explains how to make entry and exit points using 3 different methods. All three methods are calculated independent of each other, yet they should agree for the highest probability for profits.

The three methods listed in the Harmonic Stock Clock (HSC) are:

HSC Base Numbers
HSC Time Zones
HSC Heartbeat

Starting with the HSC Base Numbers and using the HSC Time Zones will give your starting points for each day. The HSC Heartbeat will give you the maximum range of trading during the day, gauging over bought or over sold conditions.

Trading is more an "art form" vs. a science. The HSC indicator will give you a guideline for each day of trading. There is no magic formula that will work 100% of the time, because of the many variables during the day.

I also encourage you to keep a daily diary of your trades. The free version of "I daily diary" will work just fine.

You find some interesting results by analyzing it at the end of the week.

God Bless

Doc

Doc's Harmonic stock Clock is intended for stocks, options, futures, commodities, and currencies trading.

This site should be used for Educational purposes only.

No advice is given. No recommendations given.

You are considered to be over 18 years old.

Doctraders Harmonic Stock Clock is based on technical market indicators which may predict short term and long term market trend reversals. Doctrader is not an investment adviser but has been involved in the markets since 1985. No system of trading or investing can prevent losses, you should do your own "due diligence" when determining the suitability of the information contained within this or other websites mentioned in this blog.

Use all Information on this site at your own risk.

God Bless

Doctrader

Politics | Profits | and | Protection

2008-09-11T09:15:00.031-04:00

Politics Profits and Protection
(website is developing)

by Doctrader

I have come to realize, no matter how smart you think you are, there is always some boggling politician there to take your profits and make life harder for you and your business. All the good intentions in the world mean nothing if you can't make a profit. As an American, I never thought I would be witnessing the Death of Capitalism and the rise of Socialism.

Image via Wikipedia

All the financial problems we have been facing lately are the direct results of governments interfering with the Free Market Capitalism. Since we have the biggest impact on the world's economy, comprising only 3% of the world's population, the world will blame The Next Great and Last Depression on the United States.

However, the world fails to realize that we also provide 25% of the World's Gross National Production.

The world's gross national production is estimated at $50 -$60 trillion dollars annually. The United states produces approximately $15-$18 trillion dollars. Given the political slant of the news services and the market media matrix, the first finger pointing will begin during the coming Dow Jones Death Spiral.

Those who have a vested interest in continuing the charade of "free market Capitalism" and those who feel the need for 'the government" to bail out the financial system. The Market Media Matrix includes all the advertisers on the financial shows who make daily comment on the market, like CNBC.

I can't tell you how many times I am yelling at the idiots on their shows. The teleprompter news readers are dumber than a box of rocks, unless they steal content from these blogs. You watch, they will be using "Dow Death Spiral" by the end of the week. I love when they use the term "investors!" Investors don't trade everyday, only wall street day traders! Investors for the most part, just ride the tide up and down in the market like a life boat without a paddle. Now the long term investor is beginning to feel the fear, but not from losing, but for selling before the next big rally! Ironic that the politicians are blaming Wall Street for their greed, but i see the greed on main street everyday. You know what they say when you point your fingers at someone? You have 3 more fingers pointing back at yourself. Everyone is to blame, not just Wall Street!

The Dow is down nearly 30% since last year's all time highs! That should have given you a clue to sell, but not to the idiots at CNBC! They told you to buy more, then when the market was down 3000 points, Jim Kramer told everyone that was the bottom! Oh, well, no one listens to me or Don Harold.

The people who have lost their jobs, homes, and businesses are shouting for HELP from "the government." The governments' response to their drowning constituents; throw them and anchor! One thing you can always count on is the "maximum level of incompetency' when dealing with the Government. The rules and regulations imposed by governments in order to protect the people has led to the financial pandemic meltdown. The voice of the people is ignored and the politicians are bagging bags of cash.

Democrats may have caused the banking crisis. check this out as reported by Sean Hannity's special report. Another excellent source of information is Fox News Special Report, "Saving our economy".

I hope everyone who reads this blog bailed out of this market when i posted my "Dow Jones Death Spiral" 3 months ago.

I feel what happens on Monday morning will be just the tip of the ice berg hitting the world's economy like the Titanic! At 2:30, the Dow Futures and U.S. Dollar is down over 2%! Asia and Europe are reeling from the bailout plan passed by the incompetent government

As you drive to work, see how many corporate offices and warehouse have "for lease" signs posted on their buildings. Those buildings were largely funded by insurance companies and pension funds. Those failures will make the sub-prime and Fannie Mae losses look like a drop of water in a ocean.

God Bless

Doctrader

This site should be used for educational and training purposes only.

Doctrader's Harmonic Stock Clock harmonic market cycles, trading and investing. No advice is given. No recommendations given.

You are considered to be over 18 years old.When trading futures,
currencies, commodities, stocks, and options know the risks!

Use all Information on this site at your own risk.

Dow Jones Index Death Spiral

2008-07-02T00:12:00.008-04:00

A video is priceless!
http://screencast.com/t/1y6GeaiZHH

The Dow Jones Index is on it's way to a Death Spiral, down below 10,000 points by this time next year! You should have taken your profits when the index hit the red signal line twice. Those of you who didn't take your profits on the rejection of the red signal line were probably lulled into complacency by the CNBC Cheerleaders. I recommend you watch this video!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_nkZ3eHeXlc&feature=user

The SP500 Index is very close to a 'death spiral" down leg also.
http://screencast.com/t/8DqH1fXiuH

The NASD Index also is faltering.

http://screencast.com/t/qpkjFCZN

Meanwhile, the Commodities Research bureau Index has increased a a parabolic rate. The next bounce off the 45 day moving average line will cause the stock market to capitulate into the last stages of the "Death spiral" decline. The Commodities Index will not peak until sometime after the elections are concluded in the U.S. The final decline could be as low at 45-54% below the all time highs.
http://screencast.com/t/umhivIVxoo

The safe harbors for liquid cash will be silver and gold.

God Bless
Doc

Doc's Harmonic stock Clock is intended for stocks, options, futures, commodities, and currencies trading.
This site should be used for Educational purposes only.
No advice is given. No recommendations given.
You are considered to be over 18 years old.
Doctraders Harmonic Stock Clock is based on technical market indicators which may predict short term and long term market trend reversals. Doctrader is not an investment adviser but has been involved in the markets since 1985. No system of trading or investing can prevent losses, you should do your own "due diligence" when determining the suitability of the information contained within this or other websites mentioned in this blog.

Use all Information on this site at your own risk.

God Bless

Doctrader

New Training videos

2007-11-08T00:33:00.000-05:00

Doc's Harmonic stock Clock is intended for stocks, options, futures, commodities, and currencies trading.
This site should be used for Educational and Training purposes only.
No advice is given. No recommendations given.
You are considered to be over 18 years old.

Doctraders Harmonic Stock Clock is based on technical market indicators which may predict short term and long term market trend reversals. Doctrader is not an investment adviser but has been involved in the markets since 1985. No system of trading or investing can prevent losses, you should do your own "due diligence" when determining the suitability of the information contained within this or other websites mentioned in this blog.

Use all Information on this site at your own risk.

Well, it's been awhile since i have posted anything. I have posted this scenario of this market back in Jan 04 with your homework assignments. The first wave of a financial attack on a nation is it's currency. The second wave, attacks it's financial institutions with bond bombs. The third wave attack is that of it's stock market. The first two attack waves have slowly materialized, far more slowly than I would have expected. The cyclical bull market has been given extended life thanks to the the "happy purple pills" everyone seams to be taking lately. As the financial house of cards begins to crumble, the talking head cheerleaders keep telling you "not to panic" as they scramble to slowly liquidate their holding into gold and silver. I was hoping Ben Bernanke would have had the wisdom of creating an inflationary bear market inside the secular bear market, however he choose to be a temporary hero for the stock market perma-bulls. Dr. Ben, aka, "Helicopter Ben" maybe flying to the rescue of wall Street by lowering interest rates at the peril of almost everyone else.

By lowering interest rates to save the credit markets, he has condemned the dollar to a "death spiral" against the Euro. Only by raising the prime interest rates can reverse the dollar's slide to oblivion.

The perma-bulls say a declining dollar will mean more profits for companies who export to Europe and abroad. The perma-bulls fail to mention the U.S. is a net importer of goods and services, not a net exporter.

If you have ever travelled outside the U.S. you would soon realize that most people don't like "American stuff" for a number of reasons, which i won't go into now. If the dollar continues downward, other nations will impose tariffs and quotas on American products, creating a trade war. Usually after trade wars, the real wars commence, trading hot lead. If the American consumer does not show up for the holiday season, expect militant leaders to impose
trade restrictions on American products. After all, Europe has the social concept of lifetime employment, no matter what the costs. The world has bought all of our "junk bonds" to finance our little stock market rally to record highs. Did you see the pictures of those in London, lining up around the banks to get their deposits? It was a picture out of the 1930's, which is the direction I feel we are heading.

When the U.S. has a Triple Triple Down Day, then you will see panic in the eyes of the cheerleaders, and we, the Americans, will be the blame for the next global depression.

Look at the videos and tell me what you think.

http://screencast.com/t/85vfHk3N60d
http://screencast.com/t/OqaDoc4Pi
http://screencast.com/t/925a7dFa8q

God Bless

Doctrader

July Highs for the Year

2006-07-23T14:33:00.000-04:00

July Highs for the Year

The nimble programmed trading that has been selling 7 to 3 has dramatically been reduced for the last 3 weeks. It seems that programmed trading has abated since the highs earlier in the month of June. Since the high volume spike on the club chart has not been matched with an equal number of share being bought, the market has turned decidedly bearish despite the “high faux earning reports” generated by accounting tricks and the market media matrix. In my previous post, I warned long term investors to liquidate 1/3 of their positions as prices crossed down through the harmonic stock clock signal lines. The Dow Jones Index is struggling to keep the bull market attitude, however the yellow signal line above the red signal line should cross down this week completing a failed triple bottom. Unfortunately for the long term investors who have received their quarterly reports which ended in June, the market’s window dressing has not instilled a wide spread fear of losing all their paper gains over the last two years. Some individual stocks have retraced their advancement back to the 2002 lows, which should lead to some capitulation , mainly in the Nasd stocks. Looking at the Russell 2000 stocks, the bottom 500 stocks offer a glimpse in the future of the current leaders in the small capitalization stocks. The Russell 2000 Index is also testing a triple bottom with failure leading to a capitulation. The Standards and Poors 500 Index has 212 stocks trading be the harmonic stock clock signal lines. The Nasd market is in capitulation phase which should conclude by the end of the year when 90% of the stocks are trading below the red signal. Currently there are 78 stocks out of 100 which are trading below the red signal line.

Traders have had a tough time because of the “volatility” and geopolitical ramification. Those who are trading should love this market, just follow the harmonic stock clock signals for the short term trend by either going short or long for quick profits. Pick any Nasd 100 stock and compare the chart with my Harmonic Stock Clock Signal lines. You will see the direction of the trend, short and long term. When the signal lines cross downward, there is a harmonic relationship between the lines. Since a picture is worth 1000 words, the trend should be easily identified. The short term trend always is based on the green signal line. The yellow signal line will be the resistance or support of short term prices depending on the positive or negative slope of the yellow signal line. A positives slope using the hands of a clock will be pointing to 1,2, or 3 o‘clock. The long term sustained trend being in the 2 ‘o’clock range. A negative sloping signal line will have the hands pointing from 4, 5 or 6 ‘o’clock. The sustained long term down trend is when the yellow signal line pointing at 4 o’clock. Remember the market will use these signal lines as support and resistance, bouncing off these signal lines like a pin ball bouncing off bumpers. You should see prices touching the green signal line within 9-18 trading days for “grounding” as explained in my book. You will also see super bounces and super retractions when price trade through 1 or more of these signal lines.

Speaking of my book, I have not finished the updates and will plan for a September release, have been having too much fun trading. There are many changes with technology and electronic publishing and am thinking of doing an online tutorial program or using the website as a training tool.

Lastly, if you have been loosing money trading and are frustrated, take a break, go on vacation and relax, these are turbulent times.

Usually, 80% of the time the market has reached it’s high for the year in the July, then slowly sells off during the last part of the year. The Bernanke bounce should not attributed to his testimony, but on program trading covering their shorts with option expiration ending last Friday. The fact that there was no follow through on the next day indicates it was a short squeeze covering play, nothing else. Turn off the Market Media Matrix, and concentrate on following the signal lines either short or long. We are at a point in time, where some of the signal lines are crossing and beginning to turn negative, so there will be volatility until the after the August Fed’s meeting.

Some stocks to take note of for the next week are Yahoo, Intel, Dell, Microsoft, IBM, Citicorp, Proctor and Gamble, 3 M, Honeywell, Verizon, Walmart, Pfizer, Caterpillar, Exxon, Boeing, United Technology, Altria and Google.

Good Luck
God Bless
Doc

Doc's Harmonic stock Clock is intended for stocks, options, futures, commodities, and currencies trading.
This site should be used for Educational purposes only.
No advice is given. No recommendations given.
You are considered to be over 18 years old.
Doctrader's Harmonic Stock Clock is based on technical market indicators which may predict short term and long term market trend reversals. Doctrader is not an investment adviser but has been involved in the markets since 1985. No system of trading or investing can prevent losses, you should do your own "due diligence" when determining the suitability of the information contained within this or other websites mentioned in this blog.

Use all Information on this site at your own risk.

God Bless

Doctrader

Still, No Capitulation For the Bulls

2006-06-11T20:26:00.000-04:00

Still, No Capitulation For the Bulls

Many have asked for help with their portfolios in view of the last two weeks of a minor correction. The simple answer is that for the last 3 years programmed trading has ruled the market. The derivative markets have artificially created the illusion of a bull market by supporting prices at the 50 day moving average. Now that the Fed has raised short term interest rates up for 16-17 consecutive times, institutional money managers are taking their profits. Meanwhile, small investors who have been late to the party are buying stocks on the dips trying to ride the bull to new 5-6 year highs. The small investor does not have a chance when swimming in the ocean of sharks, ie. (hedge funds and institutional money managers).

I am troubled that those who will be hurt by the coming capitulation are not paying attention to their long term investments inside their pension plans. The high level of apathy with these assets will lead to more “stock market” scandals in the months ahead. You should never trust anyone with your hard earned money, especially your stock broker, your insurance agent, and your financial planner.
The problems with these advisers is they all have their self interests in mind by selling you something. The stock broker sells you stocks to buy, which his firm probably “makes a market in” and he makes a commission. The insurance agent is the most devious of all, because his favorite arsenal of assault on your assets is his ability to sell you life insurance as an investment, called “variable life.” The insurance agent also has a “financial planning’ vehicle called an annuity with many hidden charges and withdrawal fees. Some insurance agents are even selling annuities as a “tax shelters” to roll over your pension plans if you are retiring, guaranteeing you a loss of principal when you activate your payment choices. Your financial planner will charge you for his time or he will receive a commission on any financial products as part of your financial plan. He may sell you a combination of insurance, stocks, and annuities to supplement his personal income.

Your financial assets are too important to let others steer you toward bad investment decisions, by using the Harmonic Stock Clock signal lines, you can determine when to take a profit on your long term investments, not your broker, insurance agent or financial planner.

The following rules for stock brokers. Never accept phone calls with a “hot stock” tip. You determine your stop loss and when you should protect your profits.

The rules for insurance agents: Look at last month’s statement for your variable accounts, and call the 800 number to see what the values are today. If you can’t sleep at night because the value has dropped too much, then you should probably switch your money into a money market account instead of the stock portfolio you have been in. If you have a good stock charting program like telechart 2000, you can apply the Harmonic Stock Clock signal lines to mutual funds and some of the major holdings within those funds to see how the prices are holding up.

Remember, if the yellow signal line has turned downward below the red signal line, institutional investors are selling forcing prices lower.

The rules for financial planners: Use only fee based planners, those who charge per plan or charge by the hour. Don’t let him combined two or more services in one product, like life insurance and investments, or savings, or annuities and tax shelters. This rule should apply to insurance agents also, who like to combine products like insurance and so called savings plans.
Looking at the Harmonic Stock Clock’s Signal Lines, you can see most of the Indexes are ready to capitulate below the red signal line. In most cases, once the yellow signal line crosses the red signal line, a cyclical bear market will begin, just like the 1973 cyclical bear. The result were a net loss for the S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Index was in excess of 40% from the previous highs. The 1973 cyclical bear market lasted approximately 18 months from Jan 73 to Oct. 74. Long term investors failed to see it happening until it was too late to protect their profits from the 1970 short term cyclical bull market. I suspect things will be much worst today with the effects of programmed trading, hedge funds, and a derivatives, such as ETF’s, sector funds and options.

Good Luck to all
Doc

5 Day Market Forecast June 11- June 20th

Dow Jones Index Forecast: high 11445, low range 10808, pivot point 10951.

NASDAQ Forecast: High range 2198, low range 2114 pivot point 2149.
CRB Index Forecast High range 350 low range 338 pivot point 343.
S&P 500 Forecast: High range 1279, low range 1241 pivot point 1257.
U. S. Dollar Forecast: High range 86.69 low range 84.29 : pivot point at 85.14
Russell 2000 Index Forecast: High range 727, low range 690, pivot point 706.
Gold Index Forecast: High range 645, low range 607 pivot points 622.
Oil Service Index Forecast: High range 219 low range 197 pivot point 205
Nikei Index : High range 15798, Low range 148680, pivot point 15093

Doc's Harmonic stock Clock should be used for Educational and training purposes only.

No advice is given. No recommendations given.
You are considered to be over 18 years old.
Doctraders Harmonic Stock Clock is based on technical market indicators which may predict short term and long term market trend reversals. Doctrader is not an investment adviser but has been involved in the markets since 1985. No system of trading or investing can prevent losses, you should do your own "due diligence" when determining the suitability of the information contained within this or other websites mentioned in this blog.

Use all Information on this site at your own risk.

God Bless

Doctrader

When Do You Take a Profit?

2006-05-17T23:41:00.000-04:00

When Do You Take a Profit?

You tell me if you are using the Harmonic Stock Clock system? I have posted some charts for you to see the same pattern works for all stocks or indexes. Once the price has crossed the green signal line, if prices don’t move higher by 3-5 days, then prices will fall to the yellow signal line. If prices don’t bounce off the yellow signal line, the green signal line will cross over below the yellow signal line and prices will fall to the red signal line. If the green and yellow signal line cross the red signal line, then and only then will the “bear market begin for the next 18 months. The market’s total volume was very weak today, for a capitulation, we will need 6 billion shares traded by noon and 8 or more billion shares traded during the entire day. Once the signal lines, green, yellow and red are trending down, buying on the dip will lead to frustration, because the hedge funds will be shorting on the dips, driving prices lower. All rallies will be met with a short selling once the signal lines are inverted, (meaning, red signal is top, then yellow, and the green will be on the bottom.)

Good luck trading, and watch for high volume over the next two days.

Doc
http://www.doctrader.com/
http://www.harmonicstockclock.com/

Doc's Harmonic stock Clock is intended for stocks, options, futures, commodities, and currencies trading.
This site should be used for Educational purposes only.
No advice is given. No recommendations given.
You are considered to be over 18 years old.
Doctraders Harmonic Stock Clock is based on technical market indicators which may predict short term and long term market trend reversals. Doctrader is not an investment adviser but has been involved in the markets since 1985. No system of trading or investing can prevent losses, you should do your own "due diligence" when determining the suitability of the information contained within this or other websites mentioned in this blog.

Use all Information on this site at your own risk.

God Bless

Doctrader

Profits, Politics, and Protection

2006-04-09T17:30:00.003-04:00

Profits, Politics, and Protection

By Doctrader.com

Starting on Monday, Americans will find out how much illegal immigration will cost businesses in profits, who will be held politically accountable, and how much it will cost for real border protection.
The Market Media Matrix dictates that all activities revolve around producing a profit. The “Market” is all forms of businesses and profits. The “Media” dictates how you should “think and feel” about businesses and events. The “Matrix” is created out of the mass consciousness of people who are not free, logical thinkers.” The “Market-Media” has created the “Matrix Reality”. When I talk to people about the high rates of taxes they just shrug their shoulders and say, “what can we do about it?” They are living their lives out in quiet desperation not realizing that they have the power to hold the politicians feet to the fire and change the “Matrix.” Due to political correctness, the false Market Media Matrix reality of “Generation X” has increased the children’s confidence and self assurances without any evidence of competency with the rest of the industrial nations.

Profits:
A profit at any cost is the American business motto, right? You can only judge a tree by the fruits it bears. There are many examples and antidotal evidence offered by the liberal news media about the benefits of illegal immigrants who are doing jobs that no one else would do. What all these stories fail to mention is that most illegal immigrants are making much more than minimum wages. The average person still believes that illegal immigrants are picking strawberries and cabbages for less than minimum wages. Illegal immigrants are being used for high paying skilled jobs, such as carpentry and masonry, landscaping, and un-skilled factory work. Which according to an immigrant advocate are averaging $15 per hour! These are the jobs everyone would want not just an illegal immigrant. In all business the largest cost factor is labor. So, given the choice of hiring an American or an illegal immigrant the businesses will hire those who will work for less money. Choosing the lower labor cost has depressed all American wage earners and increased corporation’s profits. Since it is not the businesses’ job to investigate an employee’s legal citizen status businesses can in spirit of the law and the letter of the law hire just about anyone with proper paperwork. This leads to greasing the political palms to keep the charade up of guest workers, undocumented workers and a whole host of politically correct names.

Politics:
Years ago, back in the 1980’s when I was in college I had to produce papers that I was an American citizen. Being a fan of the World War II movies I can hear in my mind the Gestapo saying, “Papers! Papers please. Show us your papers!”. When in the 1980’s the requirement of verifying citizenship was increased from a mere social security card or green card I was not a fan. I could not figure out why I had to show papers which could easily be stolen, copied, or forged and sold for a profit to illegal aliens. It would have been much simpler for the illegal immigrants to produce a “green card” allowing them to work here. The politics of producing profits was conditioning us, the law abiding American, to carry personal identification papers. The Pavlov Conditioning effects of the Market Medial Matrix created political power and profits to the politicians who supported the law.

Flash forward twenty (20) years and we have an invading army within our borders destroying our language and culture.

After 9/11 the first act of congress was to nationalize airline security by creating another political agency to “protect the American people” from hijacking. Meanwhile, the borders were left largely unguarded! The first step that should have been taken was to close the borders and not leave them wide open. This demonstrates the political incompetence of our politicians, both Democrat and Republican. Or, was it a calculated risk to gain the fast growing minority’s votes at the expense of the complacent tax burdened American voters?

The politicians never act until there is a crisis situation. They “come to the rescue” by enacting “knee-jerk public opinion polls” to make their constituents feel better Ben Franklin said, “They that can give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety.” We have been fooled again with the help of the Market Media Matrix. The immigration laws have not been enforced because of the large profit potential by employing illegal immigrants without the protection of the Labor Relation Laws. Liberal politicians would like for you to believe that every illegal immigrant is doing a job that no American would like to do. Never mind they are placing illegal immigrants in potentially abusive situations. Not only are the politicians failing to protect the immigrants they are failing to protect Americans by allowing open borders.

Let’s look at some simple numbers for a reality check.

If there are 15 million illegal immigrants within our country working hard and paying taxes “are we to believe that there are not deviants amount them”? “The Market Media Matrix dictates that all poor people are hard-working and honest“. Unfortunately, the Market Media Matrix reality bubble bursts with FBI statistics.

If we take the normal distribution of deviate behavior of the US population we know that at least 1% will have criminal tendencies ranging from child molesters to murders. If 99% of the illegal immigrants are law abiding and 1% are criminals. How much are these criminals costing us? The 1% represents 150,000 potential criminals who have to be caught, prosecuted, and incarcerated. The cost to the American tax payers include educating illegal immigrant’s children, welfare, Medicaid, Food Stamps, personal injuries, auto accidents, social security fraud, and a host of other expenses.

Protection:
Congress has failed to protect and uphold their oath of office. Congress should be recalled by the American people to hold their feet to the fire for allowing profits to come before this nation’s protection.

The first duties of the congressmen are to protect and preserve the Constitution from all enemies, foreign and domestic. Last year there were 80 different nationalities of illegal immigrants were caught crossing the border from Mexico along with illegal immigrants. This undoubtedly is the greatest of security risk we have ever faced in our nation’s history. Yet, the Market Media Matrix has glossed over this major security flaw.

The first reasonable act of congress during a time of war should be to secure the borders. But in typical knee-jerk reaction they have created another useless government agency to help the airline industry.

Profits come first in America at the expense of protection. They have created the Homeland Security Agency and the TSA to protect Americans. These agencies provide very little protection against the massive open border policies which have been in place for the last 20 years. Congress has been complacently incompetent by incumbency. Congress’ complacency has been caused by voter’s incompetence repeatedly returning 95% of the politicians to office year-after-year. Through the help of the Market Media Matrix conditioning the average American by polarizing the population with stereotypical one-line sound bites. They include rich vs. poor, Republican vs. Democrat, White vs. Black, etc…grabs the attention of the average adult reading at a 5th grade level.

During last week’s protest march for illegal immigrants I witnessed the silent invasion of our country’s borders by a foreign nation. Seeing all the Mexican flags paraded throughout our streets should sound the Paul Revere Alarm. There is nothing more stirring to the American flag being raised on Iwo Jima by the marines who liberated the island from Japan during World War II. The spirit of those who fought World War II is gone today. The only worries of the Baby-boomer generation is how much profit they are going to make on their pension plans, homes, and their stock portfolios.
Congress should not make any new laws. They need to follow those already in place.

The first step is having the guts to close the borders, enforce the immigration laws, and build a secure border. The next step should be to determine who and where illegal immigrants are. Once that is determined these people should be added to the waiting list of those who are legally petitioning to enter the US.

Protection of our borders should come first over politics and profits for corporations.

God Bless

Doc

Bernanke: Batter UP!

2006-03-27T21:05:00.000-05:00

Bernanke: Batter UP!

The market anticipates the next two Federal Reserves meetings with the new Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke to end raising interest rates. The recent stock market rise to 5 year highs despite higher inflation may continue with momentum players driving the Dow Jones to new historic highs. This same scenario happened in the early 70’s with rising inflation boosting the Dow Jones Industrial averages to new highs breaking the 1000 point barrier. The S&P 500 index was in it’s infancy as a broad diversified hedging instrument. The new S & P 500 index marched to new highs, despite the Dow Jones Index’s trading range from 400 points to 1000 points over previous 10 years from 1966 to 1976. The short term high of the Dow Jones breaking out of this trading range marked the rising tide of inflation. Meanwhile, the S & P 500 reached its high in 1973 only to have a major correction when the Dow Jones Index began its correction. When both of these indexes began to correct, the long term investors suffered a 40% loss, which would take another 10 years to recover to new highs. History is repeating itself in today’s market with the Russell 2000 index making new all time highs while the Dow may reach a temporary new historic high of 12455.

The interesting note about the Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke is his lack of experience in a leadership role. The logical candidate for the Federal Reserve Chairmanship should have been Vice Chairman Roger W. Ferguson. He has submitted his resignation last month. Dr. Roger Ferguson has been at the Vice Chairman position longer than Dr. Bernanke has been a member of the Federal Reserve.

I can only speculate why Dr. Ferguson was not chosen over Dr. Bernanke, but there are only 3 logical conclusions why Dr. Ferguson was not selected.

The first reason is Dr. Ferguson’s political views. Whereas Dr. Bernanke resigned his position as a Federal Reserve member to serve on the President Bush’s economic advisor from June 2005 to January 2006. The Federal Reserve Chairmanship should not be tied to political payoffs. Is this another Presidential Mistake by appointing someone with obvious political ties?
Second, maybe Dr. Ferguson was asked to serve as chairman of the Federal Reserve, but declined for various reasons; maybe the economy’s outlook is not as great as the market media matrix is saying.
Third, Dr. Ferguson is Black, and if the economy fails, like the 70’s, he did not want provide convenient racial stereotype.

The market media matrix has a “cookie cutter” stereotype of “white businessmen” who have failed or involved in criminal activity. Remember, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac scandals, how many pictures of the President of Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac has you seen on television? I know one of the two are black, but can’t find the other one’s picture. Can you find their pictures on the internet? Yet, the “cookie cutter” market media matrix shows numerous pictures of those “white guys” like Ken Lay, Frank Quattrone, Bernie Evers, etc… just search for “stock scandals” and you will see numerous pictures of white guys” being caught.

The market media matrix wants you to believe that only “white guys” are

Smart enough to commit white collar crime.
The Democratic Party’s stereotype of “greedy corporations vs. working class”.

Now there are many black CEO’s in the corporate world, but if the market media matrix publicizes this information, it would ruin the Democratic Party’s racial inequality stereotype.

So, what will Dr. Bernanke when he takes his place at home plate? Will he hit a single or a double? In my opinion he should hit at least a double, meaning a ½ point rate hike and then tell everyone in a transparent move that he will wait until the August meeting to see the effects. His best option would be to set a target for the Federal Reserve’s interest rates until the home buying season is off to a good start. The biggest problem I have always had with the Federal Reserve’s policy was that it was too slow and they have always over corrected when trying to tame inflation. Their slow and methodical approach does not work with human behavior, especially when dealing with irrational stock gamblers. Unfortunately, Greenspan has left Bernanke a tough act to follow, because the bases are loaded with 15 rate hikes already. Even if Bernanke tried to hit only a single, the bond gamblers may have committed errors by their complacency with an inverted bond yield. A simple base hit could clear the bases! Greenspan definitely left the game in time after loading the bases and brining in an un-tested designated hitter. This inning is ending, and the bond gamblers want to close this inning without “window dressing” on the stock market gamblers. If the bond gamblers have errors during this week, the stock market gambles will pay the price during the next inning.

God Bless
Doc

Doc's Harmonic stock Clock is intended for stocks, options, futures, commodities, and currencies trading.

This site should be used for Educational purposes only.
No advice is given. No recommendations given.
You are considered to be over 18 years old.

Doctraders Harmonic Stock Clock is based on technical market indicators which may predict short term and long term market trend reversals.

Doctrader is not an investment adviser but has been involved in the markets since 1985.

No system of trading can prevent losses, you should do your own "due diligence" when determining the suitability of the information contained within this or other websites mentioned in this blog.

Use all Information on this site at your own risk.

God Bless

Doctrader

The Feds Liquidity Trap Part II, Inflation or Deflation?

2006-02-24T20:49:00.000-05:00

The Feds Liquidity Trap Part II, Inflation or Deflation?

The market is walking a fine line between higher inflation and a depression. The liquidly trap that the Federal Reserve has created with the housing market will resolve by the end of this year. On the other side of the line is a 1930’s depression era recession which could last beyond the retirement years of the “baby boomers. The depression era threat is real and the new Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke, has studied the depression era as a hobby. His recommendations for curing the depression earned him the nickname, “helicopter Ben”, since his recommendations are to drop money from helicopters to spur economic growth in face of a depression. But first, he will have to tighten monetary supply before inflation sparks a Jimmy Carter economy. The wild fires of inflation in the housing market has spread a temporary wealth effect among unsuspecting long term stock holders. The next few months will determine if there is inflation or deflation within the economy. The severity of the housing bubble collapse will determined the next phase of inflation or deflation. Even Greenspan issued a warning last year,
Alan Greenspan just said in his speech to National Association for Business Economics on September 27, 2005, '..history cautions that extended periods of low concern about credit risk have invariably been followed by reversal, with an attendant fall in the prices of risky assets. Such developments apparently reflect not only market dynamics but also the all-too-evident alternating and infectious bouts of human euphoria and distress and the instability they engender.'
Remembering 2001, businesses were spending furiously on R&D and building factories. Businesses always have an incentive to overbuild because any losses can be offset in later years if they are wrong about economic conditions with one time charge write offs. The Chip manufactures had $2 Billion dollars invested all over the world with building new facilities and they were completely blindsided by the falling prices of chips in the coming years. The same thing has happened before in the home builders, who have a notorious reputation of overbuilding their markets. Similarly homebuilders are continuing building houses at a furious pace despite the length of time for the average home being on the market, now over 5 months. Meanwhile, corporate insiders are selling their company’s stock at accelerated levels. Others insiders are moving nearly 1 billion dollars a day to off shore bank accounts according to trim tabs.com.The inverted yield curve is an ominous sign and should be the signal flare for everyone to lock in profits and move money into a cash position. You can buy a short term (2-3 months) treasury bill/bond that will pay a higher interest rate than 30 year bond! This is a clear sign that something is about to change, very drastically. I explained the global financial pecking order of the financial market as Forex, commodities, bonds, and lastly stock market where the effects of inflation or deflation can be measured.
The first stages of inflation have happened with the devaluation of the U.S. Dollar. The second stage is occurring now with inflating commodity prices. The third stage will begin over the next 3 months by inflating long term bond yields. Lastly, the stock market will begin to feel the effects of inflation by October of this year. I hope you are prepared for the next coming bear market.
If you remember 2001, just before the bubble popped, there were several wild swings in market valuations before the final collapse. I warned members of the yahoo group about the coming collapse July and August of 2001. So the inevitable market cycle returns to The Fed has a Six Shooter Only posted on August 21, 2001. How many interest rate hikes have we had over the last year?

6 year market performance summary

The Dow Jones Index from Jan 2000 is down -4.5%
The S&P 500 Index is down - 11%
The NASDAQ Index is down -42%
The U.S. Dollar Index is down -18%
The SOX Index measuring computer chip manufactures - 30%
The Oil Service Index is up 128%
The Gold Index is up 98$
The Commodity Research Bureau Index is up 56%
The Russell 2000 small cap Index is up 46%

The special price will only last 4 more days until the end of the month. I will personally annotate 3 of your charts when you purchase the Harmonic Stock Clock book. Time is critical if you are a long term investor. The month of March has not been kind to the “buy and hold” investors. This is the longest cyclical bull market in history without a 10% correction, since rebounding off the lows in October lows in 2002. Yet, the market has failed to make new all time high over the last 6 years. I believe that programmed computerized trading has been the culprit of this sustained trading range. If I am correct, then the correction could have far reaching effects, back to the lows of 2002.

The market will have valuation gyrations and you can capitalize on these swings if you have a game plan. The Harmonic Stock Clock will give you clear signals when to take profits.
The last 4 days only, over $600 worth of information at this low price.
God Bless
Doc

http://www.harmonicstockclock.com/
http://www.doctrader.com/
http://doctrader.blogspot.com/
http://9aheadofthecurver.blogspot.com/

Doc's Harmonic stock Clock is intended for stocks, options, futures, commodities, and currencies trading.
This site should be used for Educational purposes only.
No advice is given. No recommendations given.
You are considered to be over 18 years old.
Doctraders Harmonic Stock Clock is based on technical market indicators which may predict short term and long term market trend reversals. Doctrader is not an investment adviser but has been involved in the markets since 1985. No system of trading or investing can prevent losses, you should do your own "due diligence" when determining the suitability of the information contained within this or other websites mentioned in this blog.

Use all Information on this site at your own risk.

God Bless

Doctrader

Doctrader Harmonic Stock Clock Two Week Market Forecast

2006-02-21T10:31:00.000-05:00

Doctrader Harmonic Stock Clock Two Week Market Forecast

These last two weeks have been trying times for long term investors. Meanwhile, short term traders have been very profitable by using the Harmonic Stock Clock signal lines for quick gains. The total number of shares trading above their 200 day moving average has held steady around 65% of the stocks which are trading on the New York Stock Exchange. The lows of this key (t2107 in telechart2000) indicator reached 40% in October of last year. Programmed trading caused by foreign investors buying U.S. equities cause the majority of these indices to move higher. The computerized programmed trading is designed to keep the well publicized indexes higher while taking profits on stocks within the index. The Russell 2000 Index is composed of 2000 smaller capitalized companies. There are 500 stocks within the Russell 2000 Index which have 80% of their shares owned by institutions. The top 1200 stocks of the Russell 2000 Index have over 50% of their shares owned by institutions. The derivatives markets are controlling the futures market and commodity prices with short term computerized programmed trading, limiting individual investors’ profits. These derivative markets keep a tight reign on the trading range of prices during the day. Despite theses restrictions and the large volumes of computerized programmed trading, the Harmonic Stock Clock has allowed users to profit with these short term moves.

Harmonic Stock Market Forecast

If price targets are reached within the next two weeks, a new target prices will be posted for these important indices. All price ranges are based upon the Harmonic Stock Clock Signal Lines, using a combination of technical analysis and my proprietary signal, Harmonic Heartbeat” for short term and long term price targets. The Harmonic Stock Clock Signal lines can be applied to stocks, futures, commodities, and currencies markets. You can see the support and resistance of my harmonic stock clock signal lines on these indices as a proxy to your trading vehicles. If you would like to know more about the Harmonic Stock Clock trading and investing, you can visit my website at: http://www.doctrader.comand www. harmonicstockclock.com.

Previous post:

Dow plus or minus 400 target points,
Start range of the Dow Jones Index: 10862, lows 10737, high 11131, total actual points 394 points.

New Dow Jones Index Forecast: target points 474 High range 11173, low range 10702

NASDAQ plus or minus 150 points, start range of the NASDAQ: 2311, .lows range 2232

High range 2294. Actual range 79 points
New NASDAQ Forecast: High range 2308, low range 2227 total points 81

Commodity CRB Index plus or minus 32 points, start high range 350, lows 319, actual total 31 points

New CRB Index Forecast High range 346.88 low range 315.67 total points 31

Sp500 plus or minus 55 points, start 1280, high range 1289 lows range 1253 total points actual 36 points.

New S&P 500 Forecast: High range 1289, low range 1253 total points 36 points

U.S. Dollar plus or minus 3 points, start 88.91, high range 91.01 total points 2.1

New U. S. Dollar Forecast: High range 91.72, low range 88.53 total points 3.19

Russ2k plus or minus 72 points, starting range 733, high trading range 735, low trading range 708, actual 25 points.

New Russell 2000 Index Forecast: High range 737, low range704, total points 33.

Gold Index plus or minus 104 points, start range 571, High range 575 lows 534, actual 41 points.

New Gold Index Forecast: High range 570, low range 530 total points 40.

Oil Service Index plus or minus 55 points, start 221, and High range 223, Low range
188 actual total points 35

New Oil Service Index Forecast: High range 219.41 low range 183.09 total point range 36

God Bless

Doc

Doc's Harmonic stock Clock is intended for stocks, options, futures, commodities, and currencies trading.
This site should be used for Educational purposes only.
No advice is given. No recommendations given.
You are considered to be over 18 years old.
Doctraders Harmonic Stock Clock is based on technical market indicators which may predict short term and long term market trend reversals. Doctrader is not an investment adviser but has been involved in the markets since 1985. No system of trading or investing can prevent losses, you should do your own "due diligence" when determining the suitability of the information contained within this or other websites mentioned in this blog.

Use all Information on this site at your own risk.

God Bless

Doctrader

Free Harmonic Stock Clock Training Charts for members of this Group

2006-02-08T23:51:00.000-05:00

If you are concerned about your long term or short term stock holding, I will annotate your stock charts to give you a free "docsstockclock" check up. All you have to do is send me a picture of your favorite stocks, futures, or currency, and I will demonstrated the Harmonic Stock Clock Signal lines on my charts to let you compare with your charts. I will give you a technical view based on the Harmonic Stock Clock signal lines for educational and training purposes only. This free technical analysis of your charts is my way of saying happy Valentine’s Day to all the members of my yahoo group.

How to Send Me Your Charts

The best way to send me a picture of your charts is to do the following.
Bring up your trading charts. Now, just click the “print screen” button on you keyboard, near the F12 or scroll lock button. Then open your window's “paint” program". If case you don’t know where the paint program is, it is under “Start_ Programs_ Accessories_ Paint. “ Then open the paint program's window, then right click and “click paste”, the chart should appear in the paint program's window. Then click file and save your chart as a “jpeg” or “gif” file format. Then just send me an email with the chart attached so that I can see what you are looking at when you are trading. I can then review the chart and make notes comparing your charts with the Harmonic Stock Clock chart's signal lines. You will now have a second opinion based on the Harmonic Stock Clock signal lines.

It is really that simple to copy your long term or trading charts. I would recommend that you have trader’s log program to keep track of your trading habits. I use a program called " I daily diary , which is a free program. You can then paste your own trading charts and comments for a daily diary of your trading record. By saving a diary of your trading, you will be able to spot repeated errors which may cost you serious money. I am looking forward to your charts.

God Bless

Doc

Doc's Harmonic Clock site is intended for Educational purposes only. The use of all charts, illustrations, and theories are based on the Harmonic Stock Clock Book. The purpose of this site is to use stocks, options, futures, commodities, ETF's, and currencies for short and long term investments. Examples used by this site may not be suitable for all investors, consult with your tax advisor for any ramifications of short term gains and or losses. No recommendations are given. You are considered to be over 18 years old. Use all Information on this site at your own risk.

God Bless

Doctrader

Doc's Harmonic Stock Market Forecast

2006-01-31T14:46:00.000-05:00

Doc's Harmonic Stock Market
forecast is based on using my harmonic stock clock signal lines. The
trend is your friend, any prices trading in a trend through 1 or more
signal lines will continue in the direction of the trend until hitting
resistance from another signal line. The U.S.Dollar index has the yellow signal line above all others, this
is a bearish indicator. The dollar's green signal and red signal line
are within 1 day's trading range and is offering temporary support. The
U.S. Dollar has been oscillating downward with resistance from the
yellow signal line in mid December. The first rejection sent the dollar
lower to the red signal line. The next test of the red and green signal
line may come this week. Failure of red signal line support could lead
to a cascade sell off to the 2005 lows. The U.S. dollar's weakness is
due to inflationary factors in the market, as express by the rising
value of the Gold index. My previous charts in the blog concerning
the value of stock prices and gold prices since 2003 will show the
inflationary period pushing stock prices higher along with the value of
oil. The strongest signs of inflation are within these charts, gold vs.
Dow last 9 years.

The Fed will continue to raise rates higher, until the market has become
unhinged with the rising price of gold, just as the market did in 1997.
The inflation problem will be compounded by rising bond prices, falling home prices, and the baby boomers reactions to these events. I feel the market has conditioned
the baby boomers to the "buy and hold" market theory to sit on the side
lines as the value of their pension plans and homes are eroded away by inflation.

Here is Harmonic Stock Clock History Lesson. I wrote this in March
2001.

Unfortunately for the techoholics who are hanging onto their tech
because "it can't get any worse than this," our technical forecast of
the last few weeks has proven to be deadly accurate.

Based on our new analysis of earnings growth rates and REASONABLE P/Es,
before summer is over you should expect to see a whole list of
"teenagers" and low-20 prices that you never thought possible.
Including:

Cisco (CSCO) $15-$16
EMC (EMC) $22-$25
Oracle (ORCL) $12
BEA Systems (BEAS) $18
Rational Software (RATL) $15
Siebel Systems (SEBL) $15
Sun Microsystems (SUNW) $12

God Bless

Doc

-------------------

Two Week's Harmonic Stock Clock Market Forecast

The Forecast says, plus or minus, depending on signal lines. Using two
signal lines or three to determine the long-term trend for long term
investors. If you are a day trader or swing trader, when prices cross
one or two signal lines, prices move explosively in the short term
trend, as defined by the green signal line. Following the Green signal
line for 3-6 days for the trend when supported by another signal line.

Dow plus or minus 400 points

Sp500 plus or minus 55 points

Nasdaq plus or minus 150 points

U.S. Dollar plus or minus 3 points

Russ2k plus or minus 72 points

Gold Index plus or minus 104 points

Oil Service Index plus or minus 55 points

Commodity CRB Index plus or minus 32 points

God Bless

Doc

Harmonic Stock Clock

Doc's Harmonic Clock is intended for Stocks, ETF's, options and Futures Index trading. This site should be used for Educational purposes only.
No advice is given. No recommendations given.
You are considered to be over 18 years old.
Doctraders Harmonic Stock Clock predicts market reversals.
When trading furures,currencies,commodities, or stocks in world markets.
Use all Information on this site at your own risk.

God Bless America

Doctrader

Google God is a False God

2006-01-20T13:08:00.000-05:00

The Google God is a False God

There are 4 problems that are plaguing Google. These are the same problems that are plaguing American society and our future involving the internet.

The first problem is that of privacy. The Market Media Matrix is everywhere, engrained in our lives, more than we care to realize.

The second problem, is who will determine the boundaries of our privacy. Either the government will ultimately control everything, or the Market Media Matrix will control everything. Given the relationships between government official and the lobbyists, those two imposters can be treated as one.

The average citizen’s complacency of security/safety over privacy. This generation is living in a “Mysterious Babylon” we call the internet. We have surpassed the invasion of privacy by living in George Orwell’s novel, “1984“. There is no place you can run or hide without being seen by a camera. Your emails are all saved and stored. All your search engines results and every website you have ever visited has been saved and catalogued by the Market Media Matrix on the internet. All chat room dialogues are saved and stored.

Third, every movement outside of the internet is watched, monitored, and achieved by your cellar phone companies. You car may be “low jacked” from the rental company or your own global position satellite (GPS) navigation unit installed in your car. Your credit cards are all monitored categorized. You are not even safe when you go to the grocery store. Do you have a super market check cashing card with an RF ID tag on your key chain? You grocery store habits are monitored, tracked, data mined for future purchases. You ever buy something without a “bar code” label on it? “Data Mined”, a term used for creating wealth out of non personal information for the purpose of future anticipated market needs. Sure, they say non identifiable information, but every communication comes from an identifiable computer name and a internet address.

Fourth, where is the off switch? How can we go back before internet growth curve was directly attributed to the growth of porn? You see, the biggest driving factor in the growth of the internet ia porn. Without porn, the internet’s growth would have still been in the hands of big corporations, it would have taken many more years for the general public to adapt to the internet. After all, who want to read just words? Look at the fax machine, invented during world War II, was adopted by the general public, but used as a business tool. I will be writing more the relationship of porn on the internet at 9 Ahead of the Curve.

Goggle Stock Price

Those who have been on the internet since 1997 have seen the simple buzz promotional efforts of another “dot com? stock like Google. In my chicken straddle alerts we have made huge profits trading in Google’s stock options. It looks like we are going to make huge profits on the Google bear-puts options too. Google in no way should be worth what some people are paying for it.

Since Google is not paying any dividends, what is the stock really worth? I have been monitoring the news groups on Google, and the complaints by webmasters who are trying to figure out why their websites have dropped or disappeared from the search results in Google. Building a company based on add revenue was tricky in the days before there was an internet. Now it is nearly impossible to build a company solely on ad revenue. The new changes that are sweeping through the internet world cannot be realized until they have reached the point of no return. Just a few years ago, most people were connected through the internet by a dial up connections. We have begun the next level of integration to the internet though our lives. Bypassing the wired internet connection to that of wireless broadband through our cell phones. No one could foresee the end of long distance telephone carriers being replaced by wireless cell phone and internet voip (voice of ip). People who are “true believers” that the Google God can re-make the world in 7 days will be sadly mistaken. I have maintained that earnings mean nothing, unless your are paid something for stock ownership. These Performa earnings can be anything the company wants. Remember Enron, Worldcom, Global Crossing and 2000 other stocks that are no longer trading? Remember the days when Yahoo was trading as high as Google? When the Google God fails, the beginning of the bear market will begin in earnest. You see, I doesn’t matter what Google does, there is competition between the Yahoo, and AOL, MSN, and the new kids on the block at, www. myspace.com The internet is evolving at the speed of light, and no one company can ever have the advantage that Microsoft enjoyed before the Feds closed the monopoly door.. The Market Media Matrix would love for you to still believe in the free enterprise and free capitalism, but those days are long gone with the internet growth explosion. The Market Media Matrix and the internet are merging into one super data mining and advertising machine. The mysterious internet Babylon never sleeps, never forgets, and is always watching you.

God Bless

Doc.

PS. I expect the Google God to fill the previous upside gap around $350, so time will tell how the Market Media Matrix will treat the fallen Google God.

Market Media Matrix

2006-01-12T14:04:00.001-05:00

The December 19, 2005 edition of Newsweek, an article by Jane Bryant Quinn titled "Investing Goes Back to Basics" includes the following text: “All-in-one funds are also the cure for people who think they can "time" the market by buying stocks when they start to rise and switching to cash before they fall. A new study by the University Of Michigan School Of Business, funded by Towneley Capital Management, throws a wet towel on those dreams.”

Now you have to stop and think about who is funding this study, a capital management company. In case you don’t know this either, the University of Michigan issues a report about consumer confidence on Friday mornings. What you may not know is that the University of Michigan sells the results of this report on Thursday to companies for advance release. When the report is released on Friday mornings, those with advance knowledge have already traded on the information through the futures market. The Market Media Matrix strikes again.

Getting back to the report of market timing versus long term “buy, hold, and hope strategy,” the article written by Jane Bryant Quinn’s says, “If you invested $1 in the market in 1963 and held through 2004, it would have grown to $75, with dividends reinvested“. Wow, I bet you just can’t wait for each dollar you have invested to “grow” to $75 in only 42 years!

The previous statement is called “the bait”, in the bait and switch selling technique. Here comes the switch. “But markets move in spurts. If you happened to miss the 90 best-performing days out of that 42-year span, you'd have earned only $2.70.” Not only is this the switch, but they have include a dire warning that if you try market timing, you will end up broke! My interest was peaked when I saw the 90 best performing days mentioned in the article. So, what this article is saying, you only needed to invest money for 90 days to make your money grow, the other (365 days X 42 years= 15,330) -90 days= 15240 days) 15240 days your money is just sitting there doing nothing.

The true purpose of this study is based in the next statement. “However, if you guessed right to avoid the worst 90 days, you'd have turned $1 into $1,694.” Are you scratching your head now? I guess my mind just works different than most people, because I try to see things logically, so this is what I am thinking.

Choices A, buy, hold, hope for 42 years for 90 good days in the market, results $75.
Choice B, time the market yourself and miss the best 90 performing days, results $2.70
Choice C, use market timing to avoid the worst performing 90 days of the market, results $1694.

Given the choices of A, B, or C, everyone would want choice C. So how does one go about learning how to time the market? The Harmonic Stock Clock uses simple rules to help you do your own market timing for your own stocks. How does the Harmonic Stock Clock help you do this? Look at the sample charts below, you will see the ideal time to buy a stock and the best time to avoid market tops.

Click here if you would like more info, coming soon at : the Harmonic Stock Clock

God Bless

Doc

Harmonic|Stock|Clock|

2006-01-12T09:33:00.000-05:00

The New Harmonic Stock Clock Book Website is up and running

Cognitive Pricing Reminiscence

2005-12-22T16:19:00.000-05:00

Happy New Year

Which stock would you buy? Chart # 1 or Chart # 2?
Doctrader introducing a new stock market term called, Cognitive Pricing Reminiscence.

Cognitive Pricing Reminiscence

This year’s market closing is a lesson in mediocrity at best with the market moves being dictated by the large volume of program trading. Making new highs in the market is dependent upon new retail investor’s money. I just love the excited looks on the teleprompter’s face as the market nears 11,000 for the Dow Jones Industrial Index. The teleprompter’s enthusiasm which is so infectious almost makes me think we went back in time to 1999. Remember 1999, it seemed like every week the Dow Jones Index hit a new century mark. The market moved from 10,000 to 11,000 in only 1 week! Everyday in 1999, the market started off like a NFL pre-game show. Maria creates viewer excitement in the morning. She was walking and shouting above the noisy trading floor when the opening bell rang. The ringing of the bell caused a buying frenzy with the Dow Index up 100 points in 5 minutes. The news reporters are on the floor, screaming above the market’s matrix noise. Ding, Ding, Ding, just as Pavlov’s dog training research dictates, buy low and sell higher before lunch. Traders after a 2-3 martini lunch were back on the floor buying more. The good “ole” days, of buying stocks like Rambus, watching it go higher by $50-$80 a day. The “dot.com” companies hopping on the greed bandwagon with Wall Street’s investment bankers to issue stock with public offerings. The “dot.com” companies had “Performa earnings“, waiting to be transformed into a “blue chip” company with a fairy tale ending. The “dot bombs” would be their names in the future. Those “good ole” days created “Urban Legends” of “day traders” being locked up all year long, only to emerge from their self imposed exile as millionaires. Then there were the commercials, showing a retiring tow truck driver who owned his own island (country) with the savvy skills of day trading. He used a newspaper and traded online to make his fortune! “Microstrategy” (MSTR) stock soared to $300 a share, sponsored “Super Bowl” ads! Yet, by August of 2002, this stock was valued at 44 cents! The dot bomb companies were going broke, dragging into bankruptcy some of the S&P 500 largest employers. Companies like Enron, World Com, and 3000 others. The “dot bombs” quietly faded away, to the dismay of investors who never learned any “technical analysis” sell signals. The long term investor’s motto was “it can’t go any lower” and “it is so cheap now” while the bear market swept through the NASDAQ market. The NASDAQ market lost 87% of it value, from 5000 points to a low of 1200 points. The Dow Jones and S&P 500 Index lost 45% of it’s value Those un-wittingly investors who believed in a “fairy tale ending“, were left holding empty bags of hot air as paper profits turned into lumps of coal.

It hard to believe those days were only 5 years ago…
When at this time of year, red eyed day traders were full of cheer
And their trading accounts had no fear.
They couldn‘t wait to hear the morning bell,
Only to hold for hours, then to sell.
They drove prices higher and higher,
Leaving the short sellers and the bears dryer.
Later that year, the bears and short sellers were the ones to fear,
As the markets sold off, year after year.
In 2003, when all hope was gone and there was nothing but fear,
Everyone climbed aboard the money train with cheer.
Like all bull markets, investors have no fear,
“Buy, buy, buy and hold“, is all they hear.
When Greenspan raises the alarm,
Investors believe they cannot be harmed.
Meanwhile, secular markets will continue churn,
As Harmonic Clock investors have learned.
There is no such thing as buy and hold,
By the time you earn a profit, you will be old.
Follow the Harmonic signal lines and save time,
So you can retire early with plenty of wine.
Pick up a copy of “The Harmonic Stock Clock” before it is too late,
Over the next 3 months, technical analysis will prove to be great!

In my last newsletter I talked about a possibility of the Dow Jones Index reaching 12,400. However, with 65% of the market’ trading volume caused program trading; I don’t see that happing this year. Three weeks ago the Federal Reserve raised rates again, and the Alcazar will raise interest rates again in January, February, and March. I expect the Federal Reserve will continue to raise rates until the Dow Jones moves below 10,000 points. Natural gas has hit an all time high with the first major snow storm to sweep across the country. Gold has hit an 18 year high, just as the Harmonic Stock Clock cycle pattern predicts. The Federal Reserve is not concerned about the stock market; their fear is the housing bubble they have created by lowering rates in the face of deflation. That’s right, the Fed claims to fight inflation, but their fear is deflation. Today, the Feds claims to be fighting inflation, but in reality they are trying to re-inflate the economy and deflate the housing bubble. As usual the Fed rate cycle is behind the curve! The Federal Reserve raising rates higher now is adding fuel to the inflation fire.
Doing my stock scans this weekend, there will be intensified tax loss selling going into any rally during the first few weeks of January. I used a scan called that I call “cognitive pricing reminiscence.” The Standards & Poors 500 Index has only 266 stocks with a positive gain over the last 5 years. Meanwhile, 234 stocks are negative for the last 5 years. One of the top 5 performers in the S&P 500 Index is Reebok. The shoe company stock is up 616% since 12/31/1999. Now, Reebok is very important to our national economy, right? Which of these two stocks have had the best performance over the last 5 years using cognitive pricing reminiscence, GM or GE? The answer is…. (Keep reading) Where are the big winners from 1999? If you guessed at the bottom of the list, you would be right. Companies like, J D S Uniphase (JSDU) -98%, Amazon (AMZN) -40%, Gateway (GTW) -96%, Intel (INTC) -70%, Motorola (MOT) -82%, Corning (GLW) -83%, Sun Micro (SUNW) -94%, Ciena (CIEN)-94%, Cisco (CSCO) -83%, Merck (MRK) -50%, General Motors (GM) -73%, General Electric (BE) -77%, Time Warner (TWX) -77%, Yahoo (YHOO) -90%, Microsoft (MSFT) -75%), Oracle (ORCL) -89%, and Qualcomm (QCOM) -93% at the bottom 5th of the S&P 500.

What, your charts don’t agree?

There is cognitive pricing reminiscence which can be identified by looking at stock charts without adjustments for stock splits. Most stock charts reflect stock splits by adjusting the prices backwards, in order to make a smooth transition between stock splits and their post split prices. While this is convenient for charting and technical analysis, it doesn‘t reflect the power of cognitive pricing reminiscence. The real prices of stocks before stock splits are subconsciously remembered by investors. Looking strictly at stock price levels, most people don’t realize there have been stock splits unless they actually own theses stocks in their portfolios. The mutual fund holders don’t recognize when a stock has split, regardless if the mutual fund is inside a 401(k) plan or not. It has been said that 80% of the Americans are invested in the stock market through their retirement plans or by direct stock ownership. If you can look at a stock chart using my cognitive pricing reminiscence (CPR) screen, you can see the complete true picture of stock prices.

Looking at the two charts posted in this letter, which stock would you buy, chart #1 or chart #2? I can tell you they are both the same stock! Both charts are of General Electric, one is using the cognitive pricing reminiscence (CPR) and the other chart is adjusted for stock splits. Cognitive Pricing Reminiscence shows you the actual price of the stock. These are the prices that are quoted in newspapers and television.

For example, if I look at a chart of General Electric since 12-31-99 to the present, I have a negative -77% price appreciation over the last 5 years. Now, that is remarkable, because on the same basis, General Motors, which has not had any stock splits over these last 5 years has actually faired better on the rate of return, only down -73%. Now, Wall Street’s motives have to be questioned, because they say that stock splits don’t mean anything. I can’t remember time when the price of General Electric stock has ever traded in the $30’s. Last weekend, the former CEO of General Electric, Jack Welch, was on the financial shows saying the economy is the strongest he has every seen. I didn’t hear an answer about his former company‘s stock lagging performance. The last stock split on General Electric stock was in May of 2000, a 3 to 1 stock split, at $165 per share. Basically, you are given 3 shares of stock for everyone 1 share you owned before the split. Owning 1,000 shares before the stock split gives you 3000 shares after the split. The price of $165 is also adjusted by 1/3 to reflect the increased number of shares you own. The share price of $165 is divided by 3 = new share price of $55! This is where cognitive pricing reminiscence becomes a factor when looking at actual prices of General Electric‘s stock.. General Electric’s stock is currently trading at $35 per share. The current price of General Electric’s stock is still negative from the last post split value of $55 a share. If you would have bought GE’s stock 10 years ago, guess what? The price was higher 10 years ago! In fact, you would have to go back to Jan 1988, to buy GE stock below $35 a share! Throughout the 90’s, the stock never traded below $48 a share the majority of the time. However, if you were looking at a split adjusted chart you would see the price of General Electric’s stock was trading around $8.50 10 years ago, which is False because of stock splits!

See my Chart of General Electric cognitive pricing reminiscence 10 years ago.

Cognitive pricing

The market is experiencing cognitive pricing reminiscence because investors remember these higher prices 5 years ago. They watch television and read a few newspaper quotes in their daily paper. To see GE‘s stock with a 5 year high of $ 55 will not inspire anyone to invest. The general public is suffering cognitive pricing reminiscence because their subconscious mind remembers when these prices were much, much higher than they are today.

Charting Troubling Waters

Using the typical “split adjusted charting,” GE’s stock chart shows trading around $8.50 a share in 1995. General Electric’s stock never traded at $8.50 a share, but that price is used to adjust for stock splits. Using the typical split adjusted software; it appears you have had a big gain on the stock of (GE) over these last 10 years. The total rate of return of 318%! However, the 300% gain is still -50% less than what the post stock splits suggest, being 6 to 1 over the last 10 years. If GE’s stock had a stock value of $50 a share, you would have 6 times the number of shares; your gains should be 600%, not 318% over the last 10 years.
In 1995, the share price of General Electric’s stock price was at $50 a share, today the price is at $35. General Electric’s stock price is still down 30% after 10 years using cognitive pricing reminiscence. Stock Market cognitive pricing reminiscence affects people who are not shareholders, because they are seeing the prices quoted everyday in the newspaper. Hence, no one wants to own a stock if the high price was $165 a share 5 years ago and today is at $35 a share today. The cognitive pricing reminiscence can be seen on all stocks which have had multiple stock splits during the last secular bull market. Stock market cognitive pricing reminiscence is reflected by the small numbers of retail investors over these last 5 years. While program trading, (using a basket of 15 or more stocks with over 10,000 shares,) is ruling the market’s trading volume. Program trading is creating huge commission for Wall Street’s brokerages houses. Most of the program trading is being conducted by foreign investors and hedge fund managers, who may not, recognized cognitive pricing. These fund managers have never been involved in a secular bear market, like the one we experienced from 1966 to 1984. These foreign investors may also be using the typical split adjusted charting software, giving them false trading signals.

Harmonic Stock Clock Cycles Overcomes Cognitive Pricing Reminiscence.

Let’s take two examples of investors, one using the “buy and hold” strategy, the other one using the Harmonic Stock Clock signal lines. First the buy and hold investor.

You buy 1000 shares for $50,000 10 years ago, and with stock splits of 6-1 you now have 6,000 shares today. General Electric had 2 stock separate stock splits in those 10 years; the first split was on 5-12-97 for 2 to1. The next stock split was on 5-08-00 for 3-1, totaling 6 shares for every one that was held over those 10 years. (2 for 1 and 3 for 1 = 6 shares)
Total gain is 6000 shares X $50= $300,000 shortly after the last split. However, the value of these shares dropped to a new low, below $25 a share. If you multiple the shares by the low price, your account value would drop from $300,000 to $150,000. (6000 shares X $25= $150,000) At this low point of “maximum pain“, most people would begin to liquidate those shares… Most “buy and hold” shareholders are in “shareholders houses of pain“. Currently General Electric stock is trading at $35 a share times 6000 shares (post split) = $210,000. Now the buy and hold investor has seen his account draw down between $300,000 and a new low $150,000. Recently, the share prices have moved the account value up to $210,000 as GE’s stock is trading at $35 per share. The long term “buy and hold” investor might be tempted to continue to hold his stock, he is almost back to even. Now, every dip in stock prices reinforces his resolve to hold even longer into the house of pain. Sometimes, this conditioning is so great, that people will ride a stock down to bankruptcy.

However, active traders who are using The Harmonic Clock Signals lines would lock in any profits knowing that a cyclical bear market is approaching and no new highs will be reached over the next 18 to 36 months.

The second investor, The Harmonic Stock Clock investor, using the Harmonic Stock Clock signals, could have bought GE’s Stock at $50 a share and participated in the secular bull market. General Electric had 2 stock separate stock splits in those 10 years. The first split was on 5-12-97 and the next stock split was on 5-08-00. Harmonic Investor would have 6 shares for every one share that was held over those 10 years. (2 for 1 and 3 for 1 = 6 shares) As an active investor, using the Harmonic Stock Clock signal lines, he would have bought GE’s stock at $50 a share, then sold them after holding the stock from 1-1-95 to 5-09-2000, collecting his stock split’s the just as the “buy and hold investor“. However, since the Harmonic Stock Clock signal lines were flashing a warning signal for the end of the 18 year bull market, he would take profits at $50 a share. If he has sold his 6000 shares at $50 he would have $300,000 in cash. The Harmonic Stock Clock investor has two choices at this point in time. He could continue to sit in a cash position until the long term Harmonic Stock Clock signals another short term bull market or he could be more aggressive with his account.

Shorting Stock

Everyone that says shorting a stock is risky has never done it before. The purpose of buying any stock is to buy low and sell high. The only way you make money with this approach is when prices are going higher. What happens when prices move lower? You loose money, right. What if we could sell higher first, then buy low when the prices are lower? I know, you say you don’t have any stock to sell first, so let’s borrow some stock from our friendly broker. If we borrow the stock first, we are free to sell it to someone else in the market who wants to buy it, right? After a few days, months, or years, we buy the stock in the market at a lower price. If we sold GE’s stock for $50 two years ago, then we can buy the stock in the market for $25 dollars, right?
Sold high first for $50, then buy low for $25 = $25 profit. We are just reversing the adage, “buy low and sell high“, now we are “selling high and buying low.
Selling high and buying low is how we make money in bear markets (declining) markets.
This is called “shorting stock“.

Continuing on with the Harmonic Stock Clock investor…
He would sell short GE’s stock after the last stock split, because we are entering into a secular bear market. The trend is your friend; in this case, we have been in a long term bear trend which will continue for some time. He will only short 3000 shares of stock at post stock split at $50 a shares keeping the rest of his profits in reserve. Over the next 27 months, GE’s stock price moved to a new low below $25 a share. Shorting GE’s stock at $50 a share with 3000 shares and “buying stock to cover the short sell” at $25 a share would make a nice profit of $25 per share, or $75,000 profit on his 3000 shares he sold short. Now he has 150,000 in cash, plus $75,000 profit from shorting the stock, In addition he has the original $150,000 he used to short 3000 shares of GE’s stock. Total in his account is now $375, 000 in his account! The Harmonic Clock short term bull market began in March, 2003, he will use his money to buy long in the next mini bull market. He could go long, after GE’s stock traded to new lows below $22. Using his $375,000 to buy shares of GE’s stock at $25 per share, would give him control of 15,000 shares of General Electric’s stock. ($375,000/$25= 15,000 shares)
The 10 point move from $25 to $35 would make create another $150,000 of profits.

Now his account has $375,000 plus $150,000 more in profits should he sell his 15,000 shares at $35 per share? (15,000 X $35 = $525,000)

Should the Harmonic Stock Clock investor choose not to short the stocks, he would still have $300,000 in cash to buy long the stock of GE at $25 per share, giving him control of 12,000 share of General Electric stock. ($300,000/$25= 12,000 shares) After GE’s stock moved higher from $25 to $35, he could sell those 12,000 shares for $ $120,000 profit. This would bring his account up to $420,000 in cash. In both situations, the Harmonic Stock Clock investor has much more money in his account than the “buy and hold” investor. He has also avoided the sharp down drafts in his account, unlike the “buy and hold” investor. The Harmonic Stock Clock investor is able to profit in bear markets, accumulating more shares as prices fall. Notice, by shorting the GE’s stock at $50, and buying to cover, the Harmonic Stock Clock investor also earned money while everyone else was loosing money.

Meanwhile, the buy and hold investors is simply floating in a row boat, without a paddle subjected to the rising and falling tides of the market. Everyday, he wakes up hoping that prices will move higher. The buy and hold investor has significantly less shares than the Harmonic Stock Clock investor. (6000 vs. 15,000) The active Harmonic Stock Clock investor can control 12,000 to 15,000 shares of GE’s stock, whereas the buy and hold investor can control only 6000 shares of GE’s stock.

What happens in 2006?
If we are entering into a bear market, which type of investor do you want to be?

Investor A
$50,000 over 10 years, 6,000 shares X $35 = $210,000

Harmonic Clock investor
$50,000 over 10 years, 15,000 share X $35=$525,000

Ok, so the moral of this story, is stock splits do make a difference by diluting your actual rates of return. Hence Warren Buffet’s stock has never had a stock split. Number two, market timing is everything and the Harmonic Clock will help by identifying bull and bear market trends. Three, by understanding Cognitive Pricing Reminiscence, you will be able to identify truly the best stocks to own for the long term.

To help you with start off the New Year profitable, I have discounted the Harmonic Stock Clock book by 30% and have included 10 free bonus books to help you make smart investment decisions. This special pricing is only limited to the first 300 new orders only!
The free bonus books are:
Discovering Who You Are
Psychology of Trading
Day trading Mindset
Emotional Free Trading
Psychology of Trading
Winning Psychology
Forex short Trend Trading
Market Profile Basics
Intro to Candlestick Charts
Candlestick Charting Basics
Basic Fibonacci Principles
The Harmonic Stock Clock
Plus over 160 of my personal trading charts with notes on
Buy and sell signals on the Dow and E mini

I have also included a free month in my special “chicken straddle options and stock” premium site. Using options turbo charges profits when combined with the Harmonic Stock Clock Signals.
Notice, I have included books on the psychology of trading because the difference between trading and investing is only time. The trader’s time horizon is minutes to days, while the investor’s time frame my by months to years. The mental skills needed for day trading are the same skills needed for long term investing. There is always a battle in your mind about making the right decisions to buy, or sell, and that is where 90% of the traders and investors fail. Investments for long term are a bigger gamble than day trading. Did you read that right? I said long term investments are a bigger gamble than day trading!
Short term traders will know within minutes if they are right about a trend. Unfortunately, long term investors will not realize if they are right for months, years, and decades! If you have a “buy and hold” mentality, you are truly gambling on the future. Just looking at the past performances of the wining stocks 5 years ago and how they have performed in a bear market. The missed opportunity of time for long investors is the biggest gamble of all.

To receive the special package of trading and investing tools for 2006 click here:
http://www.freewebs.com/docsstockclock/harmonicclockbook.htm

God Bless
Doc

Hurry, this special pricing is only limited to the first 300 new orders only!

Face Off: Foolish Fed vs. Faithful Bull

2005-10-31T15:04:00.000-05:00

Face Off: Foolish Fed vs. Faithful Bull

The Federal Reserve, (Alcazar) will once again raise rates to curb inflationary fears spurred by high energy prices, unsustainable consumer spending, and un controllable government deficit spending. The Alcazar will give the stock market Bulls the “dirty dozen” rate hikes over the last 12 months, and they will probably continue to raise the prime rate as long as they see inflation on the horizon. In my article called “the Fed is not your friend”, (Jan 3, 2004) http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/docsstockclock/ message 504
I stated a fact about the Federal Reserve, they could care less what the faithful bulls want! Yet, I cannot understand the loyalty attributed to the Foolish Fed by the faithful bulls. Every money manager on Wall Street has the Fed’s play book, which says, you can’t expect new market highs when the Fed is raising interest rates. It has never happened, since higher interest rates cause long term capital withdrawal from the stock market. As interest rates move higher, stocks become less attractive to long term stock investors. Meanwhile bond interest rates increase, causing inflation and higher deficit spending by the government. Given a choice between a 6% return on the bond, or a 4% return on a stock, most will choose bonds. Bottom line, as the Foolish Fed raises interest rates, stocks will fall. No one knows at what point in time or what level of interest rate hikes will kill the desire to invest in stocks, but surely we are moving close to the breaking point than farther away. When the Foolish Fed was fighting inflation, (or was it deflation ,2001?), they killed the market faithful bull with rate hikes. Then after 9/11 attack, began a series of aggressive rate cuts, driving down the prime rate to a record low of .75%, making stocks attractive with their 3-4% earnings based on the S&P 500 index. The foolish Fed’s aggressive interest rate cuts caused a housing bubble, compounded with favorable tax treatment of long term capital gains treatment on the sale of a primary residence. If you were not aware of the change in long term capital gains treatment for homes, you have probably not sold a home over the last 5 years. If you had sold your home, you would have no taxes on your long term capital gains. The law was changed so that you can keep all the long term capital gains on a sale of a primary residence, as long as you lived in the home for 2 out of the last 5 years. There is no requirement to buy another home, nor any age restrictions, nor any one time exclusions, you were free to buy and sell 2 homes every 5 years as your primary residence. Upon the sale of these homes, all long term capital gains were excluded from taxes. Hence, the value of homes begin appreciating in double digits, just like the stock market double digit gains before the bubble collapsed. Some aggressive home buyers, have bought 2 homes within those 5 years, each time making substantial long term capital gains when selling the home, without paying any taxes. Recently, Greenspan warned of the creative financing of some of these homes with adjustable rate mortgages, piggy back mortgages, and interests only mortgages, which could back fire on the lenders. You see, the Foolish Fed is only concerned about banking, not about the faithful bulls, so if the mortgage lenders get into financial trouble with defaulting loans, guess who will be paying for collapse? That’s right, you the tax payer through FDIC insurance bailout. Some people may remember the savings and loan bailout, I hate to mention names, but at the center of that controversy wasn’t there a “Bush”.

The short term traders view of this market is great! The program trading gurus are keeping the market afloat using my harmonic stock clock signals lines, buying at just the right opportunity, and shorting the stocks at my resistance lines, doubling up on their profits. Meanwhile, the smaller short term swing trader are paying the costs with trading commisions and equity draw downs in their accounts. The wild swings in the indices were caused by the large money managers creating a opportunity by going long at key harmonic stock clock levels with the small investors and trader jumping on the bandwagon trying to catch the updraft one day, then taking the pain pill the next day. If you had been following the Harmonic Stock Clock signal lines, you could see the explosive buying activity as the indices crossed the green daily signal line, only to collapse when hitting the yellow executioner line. Since, 10-19-05, for the Dow index, the S&P500 index, there have been six major moves across the green signal line. There have been rejection of the yellow or red signal lines for shorting opportunities. As I am writing this on Monday morning, the faithful bulls playing their Trump cards, “Merger Monday”. I would challenge anyone to find me 1 stock who’s stock price is higher after the merger. I don’t know of any stock, so if you know of one, let me know in the comment section of this blog.

Why do mergers fail for shareholders? It is a simple tactic to hide the accounting trash that has accumulate with both company’s books, and after the merger, the company will site earning failure due to merging costs and one time earning exclusion charges. Yet, the faithful bulls believe in “cost savings”, “expanding markets“, “market share,” which is the same tired mantra perma bulls always use to create excitement for the un-informed investors.

Over the next few months, there will be a thanksgiving rally, and a Santa Clause rally, after all, the markets wouldn’t want to disappoint the faithful bulls. Although, these are called rallies, they will not set any new market highs, and the trading range will continue until next year. By the first of the year, the heating bills, the Christmas shopping season, and the higher interest rates will be weighing on the consumer, which could make for an explosive opportunity for those who are using the Harmonic Stock Clock indicators.

Good luck
God Bless

Doc

Ben Bernanke Bounce, NOT

2005-10-24T19:04:00.000-04:00

Ben Bernanke Bounce, NOT

Everyone, not just those who have losing money on the wrong side of the bear market, have been waiting for an excuse to manipulate the market to move higher ground. The Harmonic Stock Clock signaled to go long for the Dow index around 10280, letting you ride the bull for over 100 points.

The market tested the floor right after the master harmonic pivot time, then screamed higher over the next hour. It just took a little buying in the pre-market to get the market's fear going for a short squeeze. It is very funny, in my last post I warned about the market's fear of missing a rally. Well, if you had been using my Harmonic Stock Clock trading system, you would have recognized the "big move" upward crossing my key signal lines in this morning's trading. The Bernake bounce...lol had nothing to do with the market manipulators buying long future contracts on Monday morning to create an artificial bounce, one week before the Federal Reserves Fiddles again with the prime rates. Yes, that is right folks, the Fed will raise rates up again next week, and they will continue to do it in December's Federal reserve meeting. The sad truth is that no one, not even the Federal reserve can control inflation, and the fed has always been behind the curve gauging the economy's inflation /deflation curves. I pointed out in my post last week, the hedge funds would hold the markets at a stable area before the retiring Alcalde of the Federal Alcazar would be replaced by yet another "accommodating academic administrator."

Meanwhile, the Alcazar’s calculations for inflation are absolutely worthless to those who ingest carbohydrates and use hydrocarbons, yet, the government is increasing the social security benefits to retirees...maybe to offset the inflationary cost of food and energy.

The last time the Dow posted such a strong one day advances of plus 120 points, was on 10-19-05, 9-06-05, and 7-08-05, when crossing the Harmonic Stock Clock Signal lines. The biggest losses when crossing the Harmonic Stock Clock signal lines were on, 6-23-05, 2-22-05, and 10-??-05. Even with two days of triple digit gains, the Dow the sp500 are still below 2 of 3 signal lines, while the NASDAQ and rus2k are above 2 out of 3 signal lines.

I don't know where we are going from here, but keep an eye on the signal lines for your short term trades and your long term investment bottom line. This is the perfect time for traders to trade, as long as we don’t hit the trading curves, this market is giving you a license to print money. The market’s direction is only temporary, if there is follow through on Tuesday and Wednesday, then going higher will be based on the greed factor of those who will have made a huge profit since the lows this morning in pre-market trading.

You can get more information on the Harmonic Stock Clock here. www.doctrader.com
Good luck,
God Bless
Doc

Ps. Check my blog out, I have posted market snap shot pictures there.

Market Built By Fear,

2005-10-20T02:45:00.000-04:00

Market Built By Fear,
not from falling prices, but from missing the next rally.

After Roflma with the cheerleaders comments, I had to look up the facts to help you balance the “new bull market” froth. If you are a trader, then have go with the signal lines, if you are “buy, hold, and hopeful,” the you love the pep rally every night on cnbc’s “Mad Money”. It’s funny, you need some humor at the end of the day of trading, I get my “captain and coke and watch the show. I thought about taking the show seriously, but you know, you just never get a “sell” on some stock picks., like.. EL, GP, PG, EPL, NFX, these were the picks 22 days ago. Just for giggles and grins, you should track all the “perma bull cheerleaders stock picks. Maybe it’s bad “karma”, as soon as a stock is recommended, people sell the stock. Or I could be more cynical… Oh well,.. Another note about a 1 day market move. The executioner’s line is still above most stocks, hanging over their heads until prices get close enough for the chopping block. I am talking about the 50 day moving average line, something that all money managers use to justify their holdings. The dirty little secret is that when the 50 day moving averages drop below the 200 day moving averages, the money managers fiduciary responsibility is to liquidate some or all his stock position.. Believe me when I say, the money managers are too lazy to go through the hassle, that is why we have been in a trading range. The other little dirty secret is that of program trading, if the market averages are controlled not hit the “trading curbs”, they can continue to churn their portfolios over until the next quarterly report.
Interesting... note.. when the bull market began in 10-‘82 to 10-‘85, market gains were up 35%. However, that was at the beginning of a new bull market, not like this secular bear market. The rates of return in 10-‘84 to 10-‘87 were up 83%, then just 1 day after the 10-19-‘87 crash, the Dow Index was up only 42%. There are so many hedge funds and program trading that makes this market very easy to manufacture a market rally by using the futures market leverage. You see, the Fed has protected the big hedge funds, just as they have done before in 1996,1997, 1998. The fed allowed the stock market bubble to inflate, fearing inflation, when had deflation in 1999 an 2000. and they have always been behind the curve when fighting inflation. In 1987, I was investing other people’s money in safe mutual funds for their IRA's, there were around 3,000 mutual funds then. Compare that to with over 30,000 mutual funds and variable annuity accounts by insurance companies. In 1990, there was $39 billion in hedge funds, now there are $972 Billion. All these markets are inter-connected with foreign financial markets, it will take just a push on the button to “sell“ as it is to push the button to “buy“. Hey, do you remember when they told you that a lowly employee at a hedge fund, pushed the sell button for 15,000 sp500 contracts? Caused the market to drop around the world. If you can find a source for that story, will give you a free “Harmonic Clock Stock Book“ . Just send me an email to Doctrader@nospamyahoo.com

Since 10-18-2002, the cyclical short term bull market rally, the Dow Index is only up 24%. So I have to concluded that this market is not a "new long term secular bull market, but just a fading bull market in the last gasp for higher ground. These hedge funds also owe an debt of gratitude for all that the Alcazar Greenspan has done for them, so they don’t want him to retire with another tulip bulb bubble collapse under his reign.

With all that said, I did go short this morning after the first red zone time, but after the oil inventory report, the "feds plunge protection team" started a systematic buying binge to squeezed all the "short out of the market above the harmonic green signal line. By the time the second red zone time, I was out of the shorts, the market was being supported by the red signal lines. By the time the master harmonic pivot time had arrived, price had moved too fast according to the harmonic heartbeat, so it was a good time to go short again, after I had two down candles. By 11;15, was out of the short and out till after 1 pm. After lunch, looked at the advance decline line, declining issues dropped from 2300 down to below 2000. That's a good indicator to watch, when there is a programmed turn around, this indicator will suddenly reverse directions starting at 1 pm, till the end of the day. This market is built on fear, not from falling prices, but from missing the next rally. They did, went long the rest of the day after the first harmonic time after 1 pm. If you look at the market on a 2 min chart, or higher timed framed charts, the index never touched the red signal line for the rest of the day! The velocity and tci indicator never dropped below the zero line either.

Usually when the market trades up through the green signal line on a daily chart, the market registers a triple digit gains. One thing that concern’s me about today's trading, is that some hedge funds are using my harmonic stock clock signal lines. They have programmed the signals into their computers, how can I tell? The big trades that come through the market during my harmonic clock times zones. The program trading starts the buying frenzy off in low volume time zones and the program traders are taking profits when prices exceed the harmonic heartbeat. That is good for you the small investors and for the swing and long traders. The more the harmonic stock clock system is used, the truer the signals are for everyone. The danger of program trading is that all these computer’s are competing against each other and the long term investors may be caught off guard with losses like what happened in 1987. If there is follow through for today, the market is slightly overbought, based on my Harmonic Heartbeat indicator. For Tele chart Gold users, the T2107 indicator and T2118 are still trending downward below all three signal lines. Good luck trading.

Past yearly performance of the Dow index during the month of October as measured from October the prior year.

10-19-04 to 10-19-05 4.3%

10-20-03 to 10-19-04 1,2%

10-18-02 to 10-17-03 16.8%

10-19-01 to 10-18-02 -9.5%

10-19-00 to 10-19-01 -9.3%

10-19-99 to 10-19-00 -.6%

10-19-98 to 10-19-99 20.%

Value of the Dow Index during the 18 year secular bear market
as measured on or near October 19th.
66---785
67---903
68---967
69---839
70---756
71---868
72---932
73---963
74---655
75---842
76---950
77---812
78---846
79---815
80---961
81---847
82---1014
83---1247
84---1226

For those interested in buying the Harmonic Stock Clock book, the alternate website is still running.
Doc

Harmonic Stock Clock extends Sale Price

2005-10-13T02:37:00.000-04:00

Harmonic Stock Clock extends Sale Price

Due to the massive number of book orders, I have decided to extend the final sale days until this weekend. I have been trading during the day watching if the news with amusement of the cheerleaders' faces as they report another down day in the market. The hedge fund managers are keeping the market sell off orderly and controlled. I expect that on Thursday, they will find some "good news" to make the market climb higher, by a simple "short covering" rally. The hedge fund managers can't have a sell off on Thursday, that will lead to margin calls, something they don't want to see happen. Browsing through my emails today I am hearing a common theme among the new letters. Here is the common theme: Toby Smith, changewave.com want investors to buy. (TobySmith@ChangeWave.com
Doug Fabian wants investors to raise cash. http://www.dougfabian.com
Richard Shaeferrer wants you to read "extraordinary Delusions and the madness of Crowds". http://www.schaeffersresearch.com
Louis Navellier wants you go think global markets not the u.s. markets.
Krammer on Mad Money, said to go to Japanese stock market for superior growth over the U.S. markets.

News Max Headlines “GM in Grave Danger: Delphi Chief The CEO of newly bankrupt Delphi Corp., Steve Miller, insists that General Motors Delphi's biggest customer - will be forced into bankruptcy unless the auto giant can get the United Auto Workers union to make considerable wage and benefit concessions, according to Bloomberg.

SectorTrade Subscribers Up 41.2%
In One Week If you have been following our commentary recently, you'll know that here at Money News and Financial Intelligence Report, we'd been bouncing around the idea that perhaps the price of crude had gotten ahead of itself. (Sidebar: Oil sector has been down on profit taking.)

Homeowners Dump ARMs for Fixed Rates
In the past, when you wanted a new home loan - or extra cash in the form of a refinance deal - you could play around with variable interest rates, secure in the knowledge that interest rates wouldn't be rising anytime soon. But that was about 11 interest rate hikes ago. (Sidebar: Congress is considering eliminating capital gains on home sellers)

Tax Pitfalls Hurt Second-Home Buyers:
Second-home purchases, with the heavy tax ramifications that accompany them, are the latest real estate sector experiencing a hangover. (Sidebar: 13% of the homes sold last year were for second homes. In California, one of the highest growth in real estate prices, a restriction of capital gains will crush the home market. The lending institutions would also falter, processing fewer loans.)

Analysts Bullish on Market
Analysts say that even though the stock market has been pummeled by natural disasters and unnatural energy prices, expectations remain bullish for the markets this week. (Sidebar: Too many analysts were bullish in 2000 also.)
$1 MILLION MORTGAGE DEDUCTIONS A THING OF THE PAST?
A recent article in the LA Times suggested that tax reformers were also foaming at the mouths to get their hands on $2.7 billion in tax revenue that would arise out of cutting the mortgage deduction ceiling from $1 million down to $500K as well as all mortgage deductions on second homes. This is an important development as many homeowners have entered into the market, especially in California, with big mortgages upwards of a million.”

Looking at the McClellan Summation Index,(telechart T2118) it is heading for the lows back in May 2005, along with the stock prices. Also the number of stocks trading above their 200 day moving averages (telechart T2107) to 43% from the high of 82% in Feb 2005.

What will these signals mean? Time will soon tell, if there is no bounce this week, the hedge funds may begin a capitulation sell off.

The stock market's horoscope says:
“Remember, if something seems too good to be true, it is -- especially with money. This isn't the right week to take financial chances, no matter how confident your advisors are. Your own instincts will tell you to hold back, anyway. Listen up. When was the last time they steered you wrong?”

How True. So I will be offering the Harmonic Stock Clock Book for the same price till this weekend. http://www.doctrader.com/harmonicclockbook.htm
I wish all the investors and traders good luck for the rest of the month.

God Bless
Doc
www.doctrader.com

Program Trading

2005-09-30T14:12:00.000-04:00

The definition of program trading does encompasses a range of
portfolio-trading strategies involving the purchase or sale of a
basket of at least 15 stocks with a total value of $1 million or
more. Last week, 50% and the week before 70%, of all the market's
volume of trades was caused by program trading.
Who are these traders?

I have never seen oil, natural gas, gold, and inflation go higher
without causing a significant drop in the stock market. Just this
week, the Alcalde, Alan Greenspan issued two different warnings in
two separate speeches, which the market ignored.

Why did the market ignore these warnings?
The large fund managers have been controlling this market since 2004
with program trading. Their short sighted focus on next quarter
earnings will cause them to miss the secular bear market that we
have been in for the last 5 years. They, using your money, will
decide when the market moves, and the direction of the market.

Last week trim tabs reported that mutual fund inflows of new money
was on the rise. The news media stock cheerleaders were touting the
positive benefits of the two hurricanes hitting the country. They
brought in guests to proclaim "re-building" efforts would make the
market go higher and the small investor should be investing in ..xyz
company because they were going to make tons of money. After two
weeks of hype, money inflows were positive for mutual funds as
tracked by trim tabs research. Those individuals who put money to
work in the market were rewarded this week, just in time for the
quarterly reports and "window dressing." It looks like this
September, the market will close on a positive note, but usually
when that happens, there will be hell to pay in October.

Look at what the Chairman said in his remarks to Business and
Economics meeting, "History cautions that extended periods of low
concern about credit risk have invariably been followed by reversal,
with an attendant fall in the prices of risky assets,

"Such developments apparently reflect not only market dynamics but
also the all-too-evident alternating and infectious bouts of human
euphoria and distress and the instability they engender,"

In a speech to the Mortgage banking assoc, he said,
"The apparent froth in housing markets may have spilled over into
mortgage markets. The dramatic increase in the prevalence of
interest-only loans, as well as the introduction of other, more-
exotic forms of adjustable-rate mortgages, are developments that
bear close scrutiny."

"These products could be cause for some concern both because they
expose borrowers to more interest-rate and house-price risk than the
standard thirty-year, fixed-rate mortgage and because they are seen
as vehicles that enable marginally qualified, highly leveraged
borrowers to purchase homes at inflated prices. In the event of
widespread cooling in house prices, these borrowers, and the
institutions that service them, could be exposed to significant
losses. "

Greenspan is sounding the warning, only you can take the steps to protect your money by using the harmonic stock clock signals. Over the next few weeks, market timing will be critical with you short and long term goals. If you use the Harmonic Stock Clock signals, you may be able to protect your financial wealth when everyone else is losing theirs.

God Bless

Doc
www.doctrader.com

Ps. There is a possibility of a geopolitical event happening
between October 3rd to 15th.

Fed’s Six Shooter Part II

2005-09-20T13:44:00.000-04:00

Doc's Harmonic Clock
This site is intended for Stock Futures Index trading.
This site should be used for Educational purposes only.
No advice is given. No recommendations given.
You are considered to be over 18 years old.
Doctraders Harmonic Stock Clock predicts market reversals.
When trading furures,currencies,commodities, or stocks in world markets.
Use all Information on this site at your own risk.

God Bless America

Doctrader

The Fed’s Six Shooter Part II

The fed has always been behind curve when they have been raising rates or cutting rates. Looking at the Alcalde’s last statement of "risk assessment", if they continue to raise rates, there will be less harm to the economy in the in the future than deferring the next series of rate hikes and risking the economy to a 70's style misery index. Once again, afflatus has (nolens volens) painted the Alcazar into a corner, concerning the direction of interest rate hikes.

If the Alcalde stays neutral, the market may perceive it as a fundamental weakness in the economy. If he continues to raise rates, the market may perceive the Alcazar is behind the curve again. If he pauses interest rate hike, the market may pause also it's irrational exuberance". I have one question for all those newsletter writers who are professional stock pickers, "if one disasters is good for the economy, how about 2 or 3 more disasters?". Shouldn't the market now be at all time highs? After all, doesn't the Alcazar just print more money to pay for the fantasy land we are living in? Yes, the hurricane season in not over until May of 2006 and the word for today is tropical depression 18, otherwise know as hurricane Rita. Just what the gulf wanted, another chance for the stock market to rally, right?

However there is a fundamental flaw that is occurring in the minds of the American public who have invested their nest eggs into the belief that is always better to “buy on the dips”. Now we face the same challenges as the baby boomer’s parents did in the 70’s. History is repeating itself once again and the secular bear market is still alive and well. The average 401(k) plans have invested into the buy on the dips theory, and will have to ride out the next stock market correction. Those who have been invested in the Nasdaq market, can say it’s been a long 5 years, and there is very little hope of seeing the index break 5000 in the foreseeable future. Likewise the Dow index has failed to make new highs along with the sp500 index. The program trading volume (still over 50%) of the market has minimized the extremes, at least so far until the Alcalde steps down. I find it ironic, that the Alcalde was on the federal reserve board during the 87 crash, which catapulted his popularity to Afflatus. It would be fitting to end his term with another crash, thereby causing him to not leave his exalted post ensuring more false hope and stabilizing the markets. The Alcalde has said “like a dam, confidence is high, until there is a breach.” when describing the stock market. The consumer confidence level dropping to ‘92 levels, knowing that the prime consumer buying season is at hand, most companies are blaming the 1st hurricane on their lack of earnings for this quarter.

Doctrader’s Fed Speak:
The Alcalde's loony limpid linguistics and implausible infantile calculations has surgically excised the complex calculations and projections of carbohydrates and hydrocarbons.
Meanwhile, The Alcalde’s afflatus to impugn inflation, has caused an ebullient ecumenical economy effectuated by a tumescent hyperbolical housing bubble.

Right now the markets are locked into a trading range, and I know that most traders have been frustrated by the lack of convictions to any move outside the trading range. Now is the time for doc’s chicken straddle spread sandwiches on your favorite stocks. The market will resolve this trading channel, not with the Alcalde’s proclamations but on the back of the American consumer. Contrary to popular belief the consumer will take a big break over the next 2 months which will confirm the cyclical bear market. If this cyclical bear market is like the last one in the 70’s, there could be drop of at least 36% 45% or more over the next year. This will be an excellent opportunities for traders and short sellers, but I won’t happen overnight. It will take months of selling for the market to reverse the “buy on the dips” psychology, however, who said the market was logical?

If the market was logical, then the purpose of the Federal Reserve system would be to minimize the coming correction by reigning in program trading by the big hedge funds.
If the purpose of the fed is to fight inflation and deflation, then they will have no alternative but to continue to raise rates upward until, as usually, the fed will realizing they are causing inflation! They have excluded the ingestion of carbohydrates and hydrocarbons when calculating the inflation rate to the consumers, which the market cannot live without. If the Fed doesn’t raise rates or stays neutral, they are admitting their infallibility on the last 6 rate hikes. If they continue to raise rates, they will be causing the economic slow down to the housing bubble which was created from the last stock market bubble. All bubbles have to be deflated, not re-inflated in another area of the economy. Oh, what interesting times we live in….

God Bless

Doctrader

LEPIDOPTERA SECUNDUM part II

2005-08-28T14:01:00.000-04:00

Doc's Harmonic ClockThis site is intended for Stock Futures Index trading.
This site should be used for Educational purposes only.
No advice is given. No recommendations given.
You are considered to be over 18 years old.
Doctraders Harmonic Stock Clock predicts market reversals.
When trading furures,currencies,commodities, or stocks in world markets.
Use all Information on this site at your own risk.

God Bless America

Doctrader

LEPIDOPTERA SECUNDUM part II

By Doctrader

Is seams ironic that unique names do mean something. Katrina is shaping up to be one of the biggest and costliest hurricanes of this century. The butterfly (lepidoptera) effect could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back of the U.S. economy. I take notice that the “Alcalde” is far away from the storm in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Last week in “The Butterfly Effect” , and in the Alcalde’s speech a few days ago, the ability to predict the future effects on economic condition are limited. The Fed is using risk assessment, to determine costs vs. rewards when gauging economical policies. The Federal Reserve Banking system was designed to weave crinoline into the patch work financial system to soften the blows of recessions and depressions. Yet, I contend, “bon gre’, mal gre’” (willingly or not), more harm, more uncertainly, has been created by the Alcalde from creating disquietude with his disquisitions and proclamations. The Federal Reserve Banking system assumes the role of risk management, weighing outcomes, without considering the “homme moyen sensuel” (the average man on the streets).

For example: The stock market bubble created by the innovations and the abundant liquidity trap that was allowed to build creating a tulip bulb calamity within the NASDAQ market place. Yet earlier in the 1990‘s, the Alcalde cried “irrational exuberance” when human nature drove the indices to higher ground, well below the precipice of 2000. Yet, after the market exceeding the “irrational exuberance” comment, the Alcalde revised his expectations of the future lofty levels by saying he failed to account for the productivity curve. Following the decimation of the NASDAQ market, the Federal Reserve entered into a series of aggressive interest rate cuts, creating trillions for the bank board members with failing bond rates. Meanwhile, disencumbering millions of small investors of 9 trillion of paper profits. The member banks, begin to shift their new found wealth with in the form of real estate to finish the coup de gra on the middle class. The new bankruptcy laws that will be in effect in October, have guaranteed the member banks to inherit most of the real estate, should there be an economic collapse. One thing that never changes, there will be, by human nature, another economic collapse caused by the butterfly effect.

Last week, the stock market continued it’s slow and measured decent below the signal lines on the daily chart. There are several reasons for a slow decent, one is that of massive program trading, which continues above 50% level. The high level of program trading indicates big money managers slow taking profits and buying portfolio protection. The second reason, is most active traders have been on vacation during the month of August. This may soon change, as Katrina builds more energy with the emerging sunspots and possible solar flares dump more energy into the earth’s biome. The end of the month window dressing for mutual funds, who do not want to hold onto their laggards during September may begin to raise cash for emergencies and contingencies related to Katrina.

The McClellan Summation Index continue its downward slope.

My trend indicator indicates 205 stocks of the sp500 are trading below the floor. While the percentage of stocks trading above their 200 day m.a. is at 63% Since this cyclical bull market begin in March 03, the percentage of stock trading above their 200 dma has ranged from 25% to 90%, reaching its precipice exactly 1 year later in march 04. The March 04 precipice followed the fibonacci retracement of 50% to exactly 45% of the stocks trading above their 200 dma. I posted the charts in the club site. Those who have studied the fibonacci numbers can see the significance of the numbers and what the future may hold.

If you are a long term holder of stock, have you bought insurance yet on your portfolio? What?! You didn’t know you could purchase insurance against catastrophic losses? You think the Federal government will come to your aid like the victims of Katrina? Did the Federal government or agency come to your aid when the NASDAQ market fell? What has changed since then? If a rising tide lift all boats in the stock market, then what does a sinking boat offer?

So how can your protect your portfolio with insurance? You have to purchase put options, which will offer you some protection against catastrophic market collapse by increasing in values as stocks prices fall. The CBOT offers for free, and excellent option software and training program, which you can use to determine how to protect your portfolio against losses and to maximize your portfolio with income in stable markets. I have post a link at the free club yahoo users group, docsstockclock.

God Bless,
Doctrader

Alcazar is saluting the retiring Alcalde

2005-08-28T02:44:00.000-04:00

The Butterfly Effect

2005-08-17T03:29:00.000-04:00

Doc's Harmonic ClockThis site is intended for Stock Futures Index trading.
This site should be used for Educational purposes only.
No advice is given. No recommendations given.
You are considered to be over 18 years old.
Doctraders Harmonic Stock Clock predicts market reversals.
When trading furures,currencies,commodities, or stocks in world markets.
Use all Information on this site at your own risk.

God Bless America

Doctrader

The Butterfly Effect.

Being ahead of the curve means that sometimes you have to exercise patients. Six months ago I wrote about program trading and it effects on the market. Nothing has changed with over 50% of the daily volume ruled by program trading. Today market commentary mentioned program trading as the cause for the triple digit drop in the market. I warned long term investors about the “IDES of MARCH“, which happens on 3-8-04 thru 3-24-04 causing the sp500 index to drop 69 points and the Dow index to drop 671 points.
While some would say program trading was the cause, why isn’t program trading to blame for inflating the market? The precipitous drop only violated the 50 day moving averages in 2004. Meanwhile, there was ample support at the 200 day moving averages for the market to recover the lost ground in 2004

This year, 2005, program trading is still ruling the market. During the IDES of MARCH, the Dow dropped only 493. The sp500 dropped only 53 points. Unlike 2004, this market continued it’s drop hugging the 200 day moving average for 9 more days, then dropping another 3% for the sp500 and 4% for the Dow. The FED is still behind the curve, always, still raising interest rates. Alan is playing his clarinet keeping the market bubble from popping until his retirement. Oil has broken the $65 a barrel price tag, gold is climbing higher and the CBOE’s Vix is breaking above the 200 day moving average. I have watched the Fed’s “plunge protection team” supporting the market with buying sp500 futures, causing the market to miraculously rebound from a losing session to preserve the “technical indicators”.

Today’s FED plunge protection team couldn’t save the market today, and maybe they won’t save the market until September comes along. I know the market is very choppy with computer program trading buying and selling, base only on the number of points in the indicies. There is definitely a lack of retail buyers in the market, a sure sign that we could be heading for a 1987 crash. Notice how we have not hit the trading curbs like we did often in 98, 99, and 2000? You know why? Program trading is restricted to less than 10k shares and that will cause these money managers to be locked out of the market. If you are a money manager sitting on a million shares, it will take a long time to sell those shares only selling 9999 shares at time. You also can’t buy and extra million shares to dollar cost average your holding when the market has hit the curbs. The NYSE has some interesting stats if you have time to dig around in this massive site. The important link is this one if you are day trading or a long term investor. program trading
So a butterfly flaps it’s wings in Venezuela, causing a tropical storm to become a hurricane, heading for the oil wells in the gulf, oil prices skyrocket with labor day, back to school, and northeast heating oil production begins siphoning off limited supply of gasoline. Meanwhile, the Fed will hike interest rates another quarter point, causing massive re-financing, home prices dropping, banks margins get smaller like 1929, and so on….

Or the butterfly dies because of the pesticides they are spraying to kill the west Nile virus, there are no more tropical storms, we strike oil in Anwar and the caribou population explodes to record level due to the warm pipeline which keeps them warm in the cold winters. Iraqi vote for a constitution, and there begin pumping and dumping more oil in the market causing oil price to plummet to $30 a barrel. Intel invents a completely new chip, make all computers obsolete. There is a national sales tax and not income taxes, stocks begin to pay dividends, because earnings mean nothing if you are a long term holder stocks unless they pay you for your loyalty. Program trading will be banned, illegal immigrants will buy your parents homes for double their current value, causing a new baby boomer generation of Spanish speaking citizens. There will be peace and prosperity in the middle east.

Or….????

God Bless

Doc
www.doctrader.com

Trader’s Market continues to double top.

2005-02-06T13:21:00.000-05:00

October Black Monday Early Warning

2004-09-24T16:41:00.002-04:00

October Black Monday Early Warning

by Doctrader

Black Monday Warning

I am posting this early, hoping to avoid a "Black Monday" within the
stock market. The previous "Black Monday's" all started Thursday
with a sell off, then continuing on Friday, cumulating in massive
margin calls on Monday. All I can say is since the beginning of my
market watching days in 1997, we have never had the amount of program trading which has been going on for the last 20 plus weeks. The early warning of JPM and other brokers should be a clear sign that something strange is in the air. Program trading involves trading a basket of stocks of more the 10k shares. When one hedge fund or other money managers makes a program trade, the whole index may be moved positive or negative.

Given the fact that computers are doing most of the
program trading, using statistical modeling to maximize their short
and long term gains, the retail trader or investor is in a dingy in
the middle of the ocean. The $64K question now is are we in the eye
of a hurricane or are we on the outside the leading edge?

The whole idea of program trading was to reduce the volatility among
retail traders and investors who may panic on negative short term
news. The idea that big money managers know what is best and will
step up to the plate to buy down trodden stocks after they have been
abandon by the short sighted retail investors. This approached work
well in the early 80's, until the advent of using computer system.
By 1985 Wall Street was installing the latest and fastest computers
to help simulate some statistical modeling techniques to maximize
their short term and long-term goals. In October of 1987, the
computers were just humming along doing their calculations when
something happened. The net result was a 500-point drop in the Dow
Index, roughly 25% loss in one day!

Since we were in the early stages of secular bull market, I urged my clients at the time to buy through dollar cost averaging the next day. The 25% drop was a blue light special discount for only one day. Over the next 18 months, the market was at new highs and continued until the short-term cyclical bear market began.

Since the 1987 stock market crash, the market has instituted trading curbs and trading halts. We all witnessed them after the market opened after 9/11, but trading curbs are only for institutional trading who use program trading. Yet trading halts effects everyone and here is where the danger lies.

I believe the trading halts create anxiety among small retail
traders//investors and they allow for those hedge funds and money
managers the opportunities for verbal or silent collusion. The
markets should never close if you say you're a "free market"
capitalist.

So, we have twenty plus weeks of program trading, the small retail
traders/investors will be at the mercy of program trading until the
trading curbs are reached. Then the small retail traders/investors
will be able to liquidate or cover their shorts to close out their
positions. I don't think there are enough retail investor/traders to make more that 5% correction in any given day.
The market could turn sharply downward to test new lows or the market could just drift slowly downward until after the elections here and abroad. I don't think the small retail trader/investor can afford to
ride any corrections downward because we are in a secular bear
market. A secular bear market definition is the market will fail to
make new all time highs, until the 18 year cycle has run its course.

For short term traders who have the ability to go long or short with
equal ease, the next eighteen months will be the best money making
opportunity for quick profits. As time goes on, the markets failure
to make new highs will cause a short-term correction among the baby
boomers, which are looking for income and growth.

If you apply the harmonic stock clock signal lines to any of your
long/short term investments, you should be able to watch the market
oscillate from high to low.

God Bless

Doctrader

This site should be used for educational and training purposes only.

Doctrader's Harmonic Stock Clock identifies harmonic market cycles,
for trading and investing. No advice is given.
No recommendations given.

You are considered to be over 18 years old.
When trading futures,currencies,commodities,
stocks,and options know the risks!

Use all Information on this site at your own risk.

The Inevitable Market Cycle

2004-09-22T17:41:00.003-04:00

Doc, why do you believe in the inevitability of cycle
times? You named two or three technology reasons for the long secular bull market we just had,
and we are now in a vast international economy that never existed before, with new technology altering our lives today: nanotech, gene design, medical breakthroughs without ceasing...

Dave H.

an>

The Inevitable Market Cycle

by Doctrader

What causes the inevitable market cycle?

Human nature does not change with technology neither does the harmonic market cycle. In my book, the Harmonic Stock Clock, every secular market can be defined within a specific time parameters. The creation of new technology causes destruction of old technology. The net effect of “creative destruction” causes old technology to be discarded and new technology to be implemented. At the beginning of the creative market cycle, new technology is introduced to replace old technology. This process grows slowly, but exponentially until manufacturing and distribution reaches a harmonic pivot point. The harmonic saturation pivot point is reached when lowering prices produces fewer net sales, and lower profits.

What are the signs of harmonic saturation pivot point?

The key signals when a saturation pivot point is reached is when there are multiple distribution points with multiple and redundant manufacturing outlets. When either multiple distribution points or multiple redundant manufacturing outlets have a monopoly, the U.S. Courts disrupt the natural order with Anti-Trust laws. A good example is AT&T, IBM, and Microsoft. In each of these cases, the companies had a monopoly and Anti-Trust litigation allowed their competitors to slowly gain market share on their respective monopolies. The Anti-Trust laws are debatable to their effectiveness on multiple distribution channels versus efficiencies of a monopoly; however they only prolong the inevitable market cycle of creative destruction by new technologies.

You are living in a time when I have predicted the end of all long distance telephone services. The invention and distribution of the internet began to erode the need for long distance telecommunications. The specialization of AT&T of long distance, using analog voice technology is being replaced by fiber optics data, which is being replaced by wireless internet, which will be replaced by….?

AT&T was restricted to voice telecommunications only, and was a late
arrival to data, internet, and fiber optics telecommunication. Meanwhile, their competitors were gaining market share using AT&T'S own equipment.

The natural creative destructive harmonic is an inevitable market cycle within human nature as mandated by the Creator. The first command to mankind from God in Genesis 1:28 “Be fruitful and multiply, and replenish the earth, and subdue it: and have dominion over the fish of the sea, and over the fowl of the air, and over every living thing that moves upon the earth.” The natural harmonic cycle effects all things according to the master Creator.

Everything in the universe is a logical building block to higher complex systems, from the atoms to the stars. A simple analogy is that of an oak tree. The oak tree grows from sapling to mighty oak, but the oak tree can never take over the whole forest. The mighty oak tree cannot continue to grow taller than the highest mountain, nor can the mighty oak tree do anything more than it was designed to do. The mighty oak tree may dominate all areas where it's shadow is cast, but slowly over time there are fewer leaves produced, creating more sunlight for the younger saplings drawing on the nutrient rich soil and water resources. The mighty oak tree slowly falls to the many competitors. As the mighty oak tree decays in death, the nutrients which nurtured it in life are given up to support new life. So harmonic cycle is repeated over an over in nature. The natural harmonic cycle occurs in the business world also.

Market watchers think that the answer lies in biotechnology, nanotechnology or some other technology, but people are slow to adopt new technology. Did you know the first television signal was sent in 1928? The first fax machine was invented in the1940’s, the internet was created in the 1960’s. The political resistance to anything "bio" will prevent adaptation by the public in large numbers for decades.

The baby boomers may create the need for better drugs, but it will be at the expense of post baby boomers. The political clout of the baby boomers is growing each year, and most baby boomers will have to rely on social security and medicare for support. The baby boomers do not just exist here in America, but all over the world.

While all these new bio-tech and drugs are invented, there is still the public acceptance and adaptation of these products before the high growth phase. Until the high growth phase is reached, any new technology will only have a modest impact on the market's performance.
The pioneers are first are not the ones who become rich, but who take all the arrows! When other companies follow the pioneers, these companies are able to plan successful growth and avoid the pitfalls that destroyed the pioneers. These second tier companies may not exist now, but the harmonic cycle of creative destruction will emerge from the next secular bear stock market.

So, there will be a secular bear market after the secular bull market and history will repeat itself once again!

God Bless

Doctrader

This site should be used for educational and training purposes only.

Doctrader's Harmonic Stock Clock identifies harmonic market cycles, for trading and investing. No advice is given. No recommendations given.

You are considered to be over 18 years old.
When trading futures,currencies,commodities,
stocks,and options know the risks!

Use all Information on this site at your own risk.

Market Volatility Increases

2004-09-20T17:56:00.001-04:00

Market Volatility Increases

By Doctrader

The month of October brings increased volatility to your long term financial plans. Given the historical significance of the month of October, there are steps you need to take now to protect any long term profits that you may have accumulated over the last 18 months. As I have stated in my book, “The Harmonic Stock Clock”, the market moves in cycles. The long term secular cycle is 18 years, while the short term cyclical is 9-18 months long. Do not confuse these two cycles; secular is 18 years, while cyclical markets last 9-18 months. You cannot afford to be a passive long term investor, like the previous 18 year secular market starting from 1982 to 2000.

This short term cyclical market is about over, starting in March of 2003 and lasting just 18 months, which will end in October.

The previous secular bull market cycle (1982-2000) produced spectacular gains with the advent of the personal computer in the first half of the secular market. During the second half of the secular bull market, there was the creation of the internet and telecommunications network throughout the world.

Traditional after a secular bull market, follows a secular bear market cycle lasting 18 years. Now a secular bear market cycle means that the indices do not reach a new all time high, but may retreat to new lows, down as much as 85% based on historical past market performances. I have on my website, www.doctrader.com the past secular markets, along with their six (6) correctional phases, alternating between cyclical bull and cyclical bear markets. Your financial future depends upon recognizing first the long term secular view, then encompassing the alternating cyclical markets within the long term secular trend.

However, there are many profitable opportunities for those who become an active investor! Those who remain passive investors over this secular bear market will be at the mercy of the increased market volatility to the downside. In my book, “The Harmonic Stock Clock”, you will be able to spot the market tops and the market bottoms by following the harmonic stock clock signal lines.

Based on your time frame, (day trading, swing trading, and long term trading) the harmonic stock clock’s signals can be used to take systematic profits as the market moves through the next cyclical market.

Looking back at March 2003, a short term cyclical bull market began with the indices making new lows, and reaching new three (3) year highs within nine (9) months. The market posted a spectacular gains!

Up over 80% for the NASDAQ and around 40% for the Dow Jone and S&P 500 Index. As I have pointed out in January of this year, 90% of the stocks were trading above their 200 day moving averages.

My prediction was a decline by 50% or having 45% of the stocks trading above their 200 day moving averages. This statistic is significant for the over all health of the market, but is very seldom reported. The Dow Jones Index and S&P 500 are slightly off their intermediate three (3) year highs, and passive complacency is the reaction to long term investors of indices mutual funds. There is more negative news that the financial news media chooses to ignore, hoping against all odds that their eternal optimistic view of the market’s health will be realized.

Unfortunately, most of the financial news media has a vested interest in keeping the majority of their viewers interested in “good news” only, caused by the advertising contracts. The financial news networks think that “buying is good”, and “selling is bad”. It is a view that is repeated over and over again until the average long term investor is lulled into passive complacency.

Things you won’t hear or read about unless you are a subscriber to this group: Medicare increases 17%, but there is no inflation!

Energy cost will soar as the Iraqi elections approach in January.
Program Trading is dominating the NYSE market, indicating market manipulation. The next cyclical market will be a short term bear market, new lows 45% down. Interest rates will begin to climb higher over the next 18 months.

Housing market bubble will begin to collapse with higher energy and interest rates. More stock accounting problems will be discovered more severe than Enron. The GDP will be revised downward to meet lowering expectation in earnings. The Federal Reserve is behind the curve on inflation and the “baby boomers”.

There are profitable opportunities in the above examples, however the majority of investors who are passive long term investors will miss these, but those who follow the harmonic stock clock signal will be profitable.

Hurry and get your copy of the “Harmonic Stock Clock” before October’s volatility turns your long term passive investments decisions into a depressed passive investor with long term losses.

God Bless

Doctrader

This site should be used for educational and training purposes only.

Doctrader's Harmonic Stock Clock harmonic market cycles, trading and investing.
No advice is given. No recommendations given.

You are considered to be over 18 years old.
When trading futures,currencies,commodities,
stocks, and options know the risks!

Use all Information on this site at your own risk.

Doc

http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/docsstockclock/
http://www.freewebs.com/docsstockclock/
http://www.freewebs.com/docsstockclock/harmonicclockbook.htm

Chicken Straddle makes more Golden Eggs

2004-08-23T09:09:00.004-04:00

Chicken Straddle Makes Golden Eggs

By Doctrader

I was planing to post the results of the Chicken Straddle this weekend, but I was hit with a trojan horse virus and have been busy trying to clean up the little pest. I will also be out of town this weekend until Labor Day, but I will try to keep posting while taking a vacation.

The highlights of the Chicken Straddle were completed on Friday's trading with Qualcom post split options staging a fantastic run up in price! If you check the previous post about the Chicken Straddles for the earning season, you will see we paid for the Qualcom straddle approximately $6300. By using Doc's Chicken Straddle and Spread Sandwich strategy, we could have made between $500-$1500 about every three days. The icing on the cake was when Qualcom had a stock split, 2-1 before our August expiration date. Our Chicken Straddle began at the $70 strike price and after the stock split, our original 10 contracts doubled to 20 contracts on each leg of the straddle. The closing price of the August 70 straddle $2.75 per contract. We now own 20 contracts times $2.75 .

Anyone who thinks that the market is rational, is still probably doing frustrating fundamental analysis and probably paying a high price in this irrational market. Oil prices hit the high $50 a barrel and the market continues to move higher. This week's economic reports should inject a little rational thought...mmm maybe.

For this reason if you are not using Doc's Harmonic Stock Clock, you would be confused by the market moves. You see, it doesn't matter if the market goes up or down, just follow the Harmonic Stock Signal lines for bigger and quicker profits.

I will try to post more info this week, but I am taking a short vacation. Happy Trading, and Thanks to All the New Members of The Harmonic Stock Clock.

God Bless

Doctrader
Doc's Harmonic Clock
This site should be used for Educational purposes only.
No advice is given. No recommendations given.
You are considered to be over 18 years old.
Doctrader's Harmonic Stock Clock identifies market cycles, short and long.
When trading futures,currencies,commodities, stocks and options in world markets. Use all Information on this site at your own risk.

Wondered What Happened to the Market Today

2004-08-17T01:24:00.000-04:00

What Happened to the Market Today?

I wondered how many people read my comments about “just for fun” in my last post? I have seen these sudden buying surges before in the markets and laugh as the experts try to explain with logic of why the market behaves in this way. Maybe the experts are not looking the right direction? Can anyone explain why the sudden buying interest in the market in the middle of August? One thing for certain, the market is being influenced by people’s emotions. The Harmonic Stock Clock does not care what the reasons are, just follow the green signal lines to increase the green in your account. For day traders, you have to be aware of the longer term end of day data with the signal lines. The Chicken Straddle stocks will be supported by the green signal line, until price hit resistance of the other signal lines. Usually it will take 3 days like today to turn around the market from it’s down trend. Of the 70 Chicken Straddle stocks, 54 of those will run into resistance from the yellow signal line. I will post the results after Thursday’s trading to see how the rest of the week performs. I am posting a few charts in the file section under today’s date. If any one has any questions concerning the Harmonic Stock Clock feel free to post them at the website or email me at: doctrader@yahoo.com

God Bless

Doc

Feel Free to make a Donation to Keep this group Free:

Frustrating Fundamental Analysis

2004-08-15T19:31:00.009-04:00

Doctrader

If you have been trading stocks or have been watching your long term gains slip away, then you have not been alone. It seems every “so called expert” agrees that you should do your homework by analyzing the companies. The experts usually have the track record of a weather forecaster. Some stock experts also recommend the very basic of technical charting, like the 50 and 200 day moving averages. I have found that reading the fundamental research to be very time consuming, as well as unpredictable when deciding to trade or invest in a stock. Because people’s opinion about a stock never made me dime, I chose to develop a system that relies strictly on technical analysis and market cycles.

You see if everyone likes the stock, but no one is buying the stock, the price will go down. If everyone hates the stock, but everyone is buying the stock, the price will go up. The old saying, “put your money where your mouth is” comes to mind. Have you noticed that everyone may love a stock and yet the price keeps declining, or everyone hates a stock, and yet the price keeps going higher? Some of the reasons can be found in contrarian investing, like the “dogs of the Dow” theory.

No matter what the market conditions are, bear market or bull market, there are stocks that go up and stocks that go down. If you follow the Harmonic Stock Clock signals, you can trade or invest in stocks that only go higher, selling those near the tops and preserving your profits from the inevitable market cycles of declines that happen to all stocks. If you follow the Harmonic Stock Clock signals you can sell short stocks for quicker profits on “bad news” or bear markets. If you use the Harmonic Stock Clock signals, you can play the highly leverage options, futures, and Forex markets. If you use the Harmonic Stock Clock you can protect your long-term gains in your pension plans, 401(k) plans by avoiding larger market down drafts.

By using my Chicken Straddle strategy, based on the Harmonic Stock Clock Signals, it didn’t matter if the news was good or bad, just as long as the stock moved either up or down to the next Harmonic Stock signal lines. Since a picture is worth a thousand words, I have posted all 70 Chicken Straddle Stocks in the group for you to judge for yourselves! http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/docsstockclock/

The primary scan for these stocks were, trading above all the signal lines that the Harmonic Stock Clock gives, and they had to have institutional ownership of at least 50% or more. Those who have traded options and were familiar with “spread trading”, could have used most of these stocks to swing trade the spread of puts and calls about every 2-3 days for quick easy profits. Some of these stocks may have had very little option interest, but those are the ones that will move the most when prices explode up or down. The low option open interest stocks have a higher risk than those like Qualcom that has 20,000 open interest contracts, so be careful and only use money you can afford to lose.

To learn more about options, get your free options toolbox at:
http://www.cboe.com/LearnCenter/Software.asp

This week, options are expiring for August, we may have more volatility to both the upside and downside with the big traders trying to hedge their declining portfolios.

For those who join the Yahoo group, http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/docsstockclock/

The charts will be posted in a zip file in the file section of the group. You will have free access to these and other charts for a limited time only.

God Bless

Doctrader
Doc's Harmonic Clock
This site should be used for Educational purposes only.
No advice is given. No recommendations given.
You are considered to be over 18 years old.
Doctrader's Harmonic Stock Clock identifies market cycles, short and long.
When trading futures,currencies,commodities, stocks and options in world markets. Use all Information on this site at your own risk.

Friday the 13th

2004-08-13T01:50:00.000-04:00

Doctrader

Friday the 13th

Looks like we are in the same situation as last week. The threat of a "Black Monday" is still a possibility given this Thursday’s closing prices. The Fed announced the expected rate hike, but they are still behind the curve, as per their modus operandi. If you read my previous posts, the Fed has always been behind the curve when predicting interest rates and inflation. The Fed missed the boat to begin raising interest rates back in 2003, when the current stock market bubble began. The Fed’s has been neutered by the markets ever since 1998, when their last pre-emptive rate cut saved the market from a necessary correction. In October of that year, the market was in the process of correcting the irrational exuberance, Mr. Greenspan choose to cut the prime rate by ½ point and cause another bubble to be formed in the stock market, cumulating in 2000. The millennium scare, the Russian economy, Brazilian currency crisis, and hedge fund crisis were swept quietly under the table. When the market was supported by the Fed’s rate cuts in 1998, the market’s cycle was disrupted from its natural boom to bust cycle. The Fed encouraged the last bubble in 2000 and they staved off the depression era collapse that should have occurred naturally. It’s ironic that the Fed had to cut rates back to the last secular bear market beginning in the 60’s to prevent the complete collapse of the NYSE stocks, however the Nasd stocks did suffer major losses which they cannot recover until the next appropriate secular market cycle. The temporary cyclical market cycle began in March 03 and has begun to collapse since the current "irrational exuberance" is wearing off. The market’s top was reached when 90% of the stocks were trading above their 200 day moving averages. In the last 6 months less than 50% of the total stocks are trading above their 200-day moving averages. There are young money manages who are in charge of major portfolios while their senior managers are on vacation in the Hamptons. The $64,000 question is if the senior managers left instructions or hard sell stop orders before going on vacation.
If the market closes on Friday once again, through the next century market on the Dow and the Nasd, a "Black Monday" warning is issued to protect any long-term gains you may still have left. The markets never move in strait line, but will oscillate between high and low based upon the Harmonic Heartbeat.
Friday’s market tone will be set by the CPI report, which should be noted that there have been changes in this report, most definitely under estimating inflation with it’s exclusion of food and energy. My prediction of $45 barrel oil was pre-mature, reaching this high level by Labor Day instead of Memorial Day. The master market manipulators have been building for a huge correction coming soon either in the stock market or in the oil market. The geopolitical concerns along with presidential politics leads me to suspect most government reports, both good news and bad news.
If the market’s trade higher in the morning by the first red zone time, it might be a good strategy to buy some put options for the late afternoon trading. This is because put option will be cheaper if the market rises. If the market sells off in the morning before the first red zone time, then buy put options later in the afternoon if the market internal are improving and the market goes positive. The market internals measures the advance/decline line, and is a simple measure of any real buying and selling pressure. If there are more than 2-1 declining vs. advancing stocks, margin calls on Monday morning could cascade downward. For short term day traders, the next few weeks could very profitable given this weeks volatility.

I will be working on the website this weekend, if you have any questions email me or post in the group.
God Bless
Doc
http://www.doctrader.com/

Doc’s Chicken Straddles Lay Golden Eggs

2004-08-09T02:38:00.001-04:00

Doc’s Chicken Straddles Lay Golden Eggs

by Doctrader

Since Doc’s Harmonic Stock Clock picked the top 70 chicken stock straddles for earning season, the results have been fantastic. Doc’s Chicken straddle list was reduced down from 495 stocks that were identified for earnings volatility. The top 70 stocks were listed in the file section of this group. Has anyone been following the top 70 chicken straddle stocks or traded the Qualcom example that I explained in a previous post? Qualcom earnings were reported on July 21st and they have announced a 2-1 stock split. Based on the August 70 strike prices, this stock has been very profitable for those who played Doc’s chickens straddle stratagy and converted the chicken straddles into chicken spreads. Just as I predicted, about every 2-3 days the stock price has been "pinged ponged" over the 70 strike price. Over the last 20 trading days or 30 calendar days, the profit potential for writing covered Doc’s chicken spreads ranged between $500-$1500 every 2-3 days. Now, we have icing on the cake with the announcement of a stock split! This will keep people interested in trading Qualcom until August expiration date. Remember when the stock splits, so will the number of option contracts that you own. The stock split’s ex. Date is 8-16, so unfortunately, you won’t have very long to play with twice the number of chicken straddle contracts that you currently own.
Looks like my other prediction and warning to long term investor is coming true in that July maybe the high for the rest of the year. Doc’s Harmonic Stock Clock gave the signals for the intermediate top. Friday’s sell off penetrated the May lows for the Dow Index of 9855! For those who have bought my harmonic stock clock book, the harmonic price base of 9792 supported the Dow’s. The Dow Index on Thursday’s close of 9963 (harmonic base number) and the low was 9793 (harmonic base number 9792) was 171 points, or 19 harmonic price steps. Usually after 18 harmonic price steps this will indicate a Monday’s opening price higher. However, with Thursday’s drop and Friday’s drop is a 1-2 punch combination that could lead to another "Black Monday", with many margin calls being executed! Total Dow losses over the last two trading days was over 300 points. The bad news is that the young money managers have been using program trading during the last 13 weeks, exacerbating the market’s daily volume. If the market collapses this week, the past 13 weeks of program trading will lead the market swiftly downward, hitting the trading curbs and locking out most money manager’s program trading ability. Once again, the big money managers will leave the small retail investors holding the bag! The NASDAQ lottery stockholders are in worse shape, and their correction could lead the rest of the market into a "death spiral", as selling pressure builds. The NASDAQ is down around 20% and if the market goes lower than 27%, panic selling may lead to final capitulation. However, the same chicken straddle strategy could have been played by those who investing the NASDAQ by using put and call options on the QQQs.
For this reason, dealing with wild market swings and program trading, options can be used as insurance against market pitfalls. By using Doc’s chicken straddle strategy, one need not worry about uncertain earning announcements and wild market swings. By using Doc’s Harmonic stock Clock signals defined in my book, you could have implemented the proper strategy for these wild market gyrations.
Long term investors and short term traders who have invested in my harmonic stock clock book can clearly see the signs of a new cyclical bear market and are ready to capitalize on it and to make a profit. Buy your copy of the harmonic stock clock book today before it’s too late.

God Bless

Doc

Has the Dow reached the Top?

2004-07-11T18:44:00.001-04:00

Has the Dow reached the Top?

By Doctrader

These are strange times indeed. The week ending 6-25-2004 had the highest program trading ever recorded on the NYSE exchange. Looking back at historical cycles, one can only assume that a “big market move” will happen shortly. In Jake Bernstein’s “Seasonal Trader’s Bible”, the Dow usually makes a short-term top for the calendar year by July 16th. Looking at the program trading levels, on 6-25-2004, the Dow has what could be the top for the year.
Since the first of the year, the Dow has been trading downward in a series of descending tops. In 2000 and 2001, the programming statistics were approximately 30%, compared to the recent 10-week run of over 50%. It is time to be more concerned with preservation of wealth than accumulating wealth, and good common sense would dictate that you should be prepared for the worst-case scenario with your long-term investments.

One way to prepare for the worst-case scenario is to use options, specifically put options. Think of put options as a small price to pay for “insurance” against a catastrophic loss with your long-term investments. You buy insurance for your home, car, and life, why not spend a few dollars to insure your portfolio? If you are interested in learning how to hedge your long-term portfolio, send me an email, names will be held in confidence and I may use generic information to help others who have similar problems.

As I posted earlier this week about “chicken straddles” for earnings, most stocks stayed within market range. Some stocks broke out to the upside by 6% and others to the down side by 6%. The others are waiting till their earnings announcements. Meanwhile, the Dow index moved only .68% for the week ending on 7-09-2004. Looking at the Qualcom chicken straddle both puts and call gained in value for a total profit on each straddle of the $70 and $75 August Strikes. The cost of the $70 straddle that I used in the example was $6.25, and Friday’s closing price was at $6.50. This week, the July options will expire, so we may see more volatility among these options, cumulating to Qualcom earnings report on July 21st. Qualcom stock will be the bell weather stock for most NASDQ stocks for the rest of the summer.

The traders who have been following the signal lines will see most of the stocks continue above the green signal line, until earnings are announced. Some of the top 70 stocks in my list have fallen to the yellow or red signal lines for support.

If support fails, the green signal line will begin to turn downward through the other signal line. Traders should follow the signal lines when day trading in conjunction with the daily signal lines for support or resistance.

God Bless

Doctrader

This site should be used for educational and training purposes only.

Doctrader's Harmonic Stock Clock harmonic market cycles, trading and investing. No advice is given. No recommendations given.

You are considered to be over 18 years old.
When trading futures, currencies, commodities,
stocks, and options know the risks!

Use all Information on this site at your own risk.

9th Week of Program Trading Record

2004-07-07T17:15:00.002-04:00

9th Week of Program Trading Record

I suspect that the 9th consecutive week of program trading will lead to a big move in the market’s direction. Can anyone explain why so much volume on the NYSE is caused by “programmed trading” among the NYSE member firms? The advent of the earning season has begun and one of it’s victims was Veritas Software, (VRTS), saying “ we are going to miss our numbers”, quickly shaving off 4 billion in market capitalization before the market was open. I suspect the stories will be similar with other Nasdaq Lottery Stocks that were bought assuming they were going up 200-300% a year! Now that the expectations are beyond the reach of most rosy forecast, the cheerleaders will begin reminding you that the stock market predicts the economy 6-9 month in the future. The stock market’s future is predicting the economy after the elections. The stock market is discounting the future economy, and typically the year after the presidential elections are rocky at best.

The summer months are the time for Doc’s famous Chicken Straddles around earning seasons. I have scanned the market for some of the best candidates for you see if they meet your investment goals. If you are not familiar with option strategies, I suggest you paper trade the list of stocks for your straddles.

Using options as a hedge to your portfolio or long term holding is only the beginning with the many strategies that you can employ. There are numerous option strategies for you to use, and only your imagination and wallet are the limiting factor. There are many experts who will try to teach you everything there is about trading option contracts, but I like to keep it simple. When you talk about options, the first thing you hear people say is…”they are too risky for me”. I say so is driving a car if you don’t know the rules! However, if you do know the rules of option trading like driving, it is not that risky! There are websites that offer you option programs, strategies, advice, and all the information to overload your senses, but you don’t have to know everything to make money by using options. An excellent free course in option trading can be found in the link section of the group under the “option toolbox”. If you have never traded options and don’t have an option account, then you don’t have to read any further. Your first stop should be to download the free option toolbox.
As part of your continuation education about trading, you will find that option strategies when used with a stock portfolio are was of the best ways to guarantee a profit! Yes, I did say Guarantee your portfolio a profit! There is no other way to guarantee your stock portfolio a profit, unless you understand how to use options! Then why will so many experts tell you they are risky? The simple answer is they, the stockbrokers, don’t have a clue how to guarantee your stock portfolio. The stockbrokers are taught one thing, and that is how to “sell” you a stock the firm already own! Since I am not a register investment advisor, stock broker, or insurance agent, I can tell you all truth about all the dirty little secrets…. of the industry.

Hedging Your Portfolio using the Chicken Straddle Strategy

I am sure that there are good advisors, stockbrokers, and even insurance agents out there, but they don’t come to your house, or call you on the phone with a hot tip! IMO!

Option players fall into two major categories. Those swinging for the fence, and the single hitters, to use a baseball analogy. When swinging for the home run fence, especially during earning season, it’s important to “get into a position” (or in the batter’s box) before any pre-announcement surprises (the first pitch). Find out when a stock will announce earnings, then get in the batter’s box around 6-7 weeks before the actual earnings are announced. Your options should expire after the actual earnings are announced on the stock.

The second most important thing to know is when to exit a position. You are given 3 strikes in baseball; the first strike is a pre-announcement of earning expectations. Good news or bad will make the stock prices move more than ordinary day trading oscillations. The second strike is when similar stocks within the industry pre- announces, good or bad news. The third strike is 1-3 days after the actual earning have been announced and have been scrutinized, analyzed, and gains or losses are realized by most long-term investors or traders.

The best option plays for conservative single hitter are using those on indices and on future contracts. The best option plays for home run hitters are those on strongly trending stocks, just before earnings and before they have any pre-announcements. When stock option trading, you need to screen out most of the stocks, by stock volume traded, option open interests, and using the harmonic stock clock signal lines.

The stock screening process is probably the easiest if you have historical data, using a program like meta stock, telechart 2000, or the numerous other programs that offer end of the day data. The stock list that I will post has been screen using several other criteria, like stock prices being above $10 per share, high institutional ownership, and the stock trading in the top 50% by market capitalization. Lastly but not least, stocks in an up trend as defined by all the Doc’s harmonic stock signal lines.

The “hard core” option traders will tell you that you need to buy options based on “the greeks”, terms used like beta, delta, gamma, and theta. Sometimes you need to know these numbers, but not every time. Option players sometimes forget that it is the stock movement that defines most of the “greeks”, not the “greeks” define the stock movement. I said most of the “greeks”, because open interest can define support and resistance for stock prices. You see, options are like a double edge sword; they can be used as a hedge for stock prices, or they can be used to move prices in a given direction.

A word of caution about accounting rules of the IRS, all stock options is treated as short-term gains. If you off set the gains on the call options with the losses on the puts options, you still make money! When trading with options, make sure your trading account is “marked to the market” and you have a limited partnership account to write off your “net losses vs. net gains”. See your Tax advisor first!

Going back to using options strictly for earning season, using a chicken straddle, your strategy is based on price movement, not the directional movement of the stock. The chicken straddle strategy allow for profit when stock prices move up or down

For example, using Qualcom, (Qcom), the stock is in an up trend, all signal lines trending higher. The call options nearest the stock price, i.e. $70 for the August contracts are at $3.53. The put options at $70 are at $2.75. This is where I start, at the money stock priced options. If I bought 1 call and 1 put option, my total price at today’s closing price would be 3.53. + 2.75 = $6.25 I will no spend more than 10% on a straddle for a given stock price, i.e. $70 per share or $7000.00 If I bought 10 calls and 10 puts contracts at the $70 strike price, my total cost would be $6250.00 plus commissions, around $30 to $60 for the 20 contracts. Lets round it up to $100 for all 20 contracts for simplicity, so total cost would be $6350.

Now I have the right to buy 1000 shares of Qcom at $70 per share or Sell Qcom at $70 per share till the third Friday of August. If Qcom stock moves to over $75 dollars a share, I can still buy the stock for $70 a share, or I could also sell the 10 call options for at least $5,000 or more. I could also sell the 10 put options for $X dollar amount at a loss. But let’s say I can’t sell the 10 put contracts for anything. so let’s take the put options at a 100% loss. To keep this example short… total cash outlay for straddle was $-6350 plus total cash in $5,000 = net loss of $-1350. In round percentage of losses, I would lose around 20% if Qcom only reached a high of $75.00 by the 3rd Friday in August. Let’s say earnings were very good, and Qcom stock gapped higher on the opening and traded up to $80 per share! I would be able to sell the call options for $10 per contract or $10,000 instead of only $5,000. Again, total cash out lay is -$6300 for straddle, and total cash received was $10,000. Total net profit of $10,000 -$6350= $3650 or +50% profit!

In real life, your results will be better than a 100% loss on the puts contracts, and there will be a small “decay of time value”, but I only hold these straddle until 1-3 days after the earnings reports are out, unless I make them a chicken straddle spread sandwich. Now what happens when there is bad news about earnings?

Remember the put contracts I bought at the $70 strike for $2750? If the price of Qcom drops to $65 as share, my put contracts will be worth $5000 or more. If the price drops to $60, the contracts will be worth over $10,000 or more.

Compare that to owning a 1000 shares at $70 a share. I would need at least $35,000 to buy the stock on margin or the full $70,000 to participate on good earnings news on Qcom. If the stock rose to $80 a share, I would make 10,000 profit. However if earnings news was bad, and Qcom opened down from $70, how much would I lose at $60? I would lose $10,000. I have a 50/50 chance of winning, only with good news!

Now what happens when the price stays flat?

Each day your options lose a small amount until expiration day. Looking at the stock chart of Qcom, do you think prices will stay within plus or minus $6.00 of the $70 strike price? Since Januarary, Qcom is up over 30% for the year, will the trend continue by the 3rd week in August? I checked when earning will be released, on July 21st, after the market closes. This gives you roughly 3 weeks to play after earnings are announced. Usually, there will be profit taking and the stock will find support at the yellow harmonic stock clock signal line. If there is bad news, the stock may trade lower to the red harmonic stock clock signal line. Well you don’t have to just sit there twiddling your thumbs, like a stockholder bobbing to the rising and sinking tide.

You can turn your “chicken straddle” into a “chicken straddle spread sandwich” and using this strategy, you could swing trade the “short leg” of the spread!

Now there are two types of spread strategies, one is a debit spread; the other is a credit spread. Both types may require a margin by your broker. Both types of spreads allow you to sell “short” options, putting cash back into your pocket. Briefly, if you own the $70 call options, you can sell short the $75, or $80 call options bringing in cash to your account. You can sell short the higher strike priced options because these are “technically” covered by your ownership of the lower strike priced options at $70.

A simple analogy is using a ping-pong table. The $70 stock price is at the center net, on one the right side you have $75 and the left side you have $$65 as part of the table. If the ping-pong ball is on the right side you “sell short” the $75 or $80 call options. Today, the $75 call option is going for $1.70 or $1700 if you exercised this strategy. The $80 call option is going for $.55 or $550 of cash into your account. I would sell the $80 call options and put $550 in my account, keeping in mind if Qcom has great numbers and trades higher than $80, I have a guaranteed spread of ($70 to $80) or $10,000 minus the $550 I have received! (I know what you are thinking, the original chicken straddle cash outlay was $6350, the calls cost $3530 and the puts cost $2750.) Still, $10,000 - $6350 = $3650, but I have a bird in the hand of $550 in my account tomorrow.

If tomorrow, Qcom trades down on sympathy bad news from someone else or a down grades, on the numerous other excuses, I have the right to cover my “short sell” options for much less than $.50 cents or $550 dollars. While tomorrow, Qcom ‘s stock price moves lower, I could sell the $65 puts or $60 puts for cash in my account. The $65 strike price puts are selling today for $.95, and as the stock price (ping pong ball) moves toward the end of the ping pong table, I would receive a higher price for “selling short the $65 put options. Again, the $65 put is covered by my ownership of the $70 put.

By using this strategy, you can put cash into your account while waiting for the stock to “break out” after earnings announcements if there is no breakout within the narrow trading range. For those who are advance traders, you can implement the chicken straddle strategy along with the chicken spread strategy to lower your overall cost of the original cash out lay of $6350.

Buying the $70 chicken straddle cost $6350, then selling short the $80 calls yesterday for $.50 cents or $500, and selling short the $65 put options for $1.00 or $1,000, lowers your overall cost of the chicken straddle strategy. Cash outlay, -$6350 + $1500 = $4850 (cash income of ($500 calls, + $1000 on the puts = $1500) By doing both strategies at the same time I have lowered my total cost and break even point to within next higher or lower strike prices of the $75 call options and the $65 put option. You can use the harmonic stock clock signals to “market time” each side of the chicken straddles spreads to maximize these for higher profits. You are in total control, unlike owning stocks; options allow the flexibility to change with the ever-changing market conditions. There are many different strategies to use and many are flexible enough to build on the foundation of the chicken straddle option strategy.

The stock list is posted using a tab delimited or Microsoft spreadsheet file, in the file section.
God Bless

Doc

This site should be used for educational and training purposes only.
Doctrader's Harmonic Stock Clock harmonic market cycles, trading and investing. No advice is given. No recommendations given.

You are considered to be over 18 years old. When trading futures, currencies, commodities, stocks, and options know the risks!

Use all Information on this site at your own risk.

6th straight week of program trading

2004-06-20T21:18:00.000-04:00

6th straight week of program trading

What can I say, it has never happened before, either we are in one of the biggest up swings on the market, or we are on the verge of one of the biggest crashes in history. The harmonic heartbeat is declining, which would point to an upsurge in the market indices, but we have not moved very high off the lows. The harmonic heartbeat indicator is a contrarian indicator, by it’s low reading, we should expect the market to move sharply down with an expanding intra day trading range. However, the market is stalled, by the June 30th deadline in Iraq and the Fed meeting. Soon, the major players will be off to the Hampton's, enjoying either their shorts or longs until summer is over. If the market has had 6 straight weeks of 50% or more program trading, what will happen when you remove 50% of the last 6 weeks of volume? I have seen many stock newsletter writers say that now is the time to buy, maybe their readership will replace the 50% of the volume when the program trading falls back to normal. In any case, we can only guess what will happen when earning warnings begin this week. Stay tuned for instructions on how to protect your profits. If you are trader, it will be dangerous to “short” DUE TO LOW VOLUME AND THE PLUNGE PROTECTION TEAM. The powers to be have decided that, for now, the market will remain above 10k, at least until the June 30th deadline.

God Bless

Doc

NYSE Program Trading

2004-06-14T12:10:00.000-04:00

NYSE Program Trading

I checked the NYSE.com website, under market information, the record indicates for the last 5 weeks program trading has ruled the market. Looking back over the last 5 years, this has never happened before. The program trading on the NYSE is leading to sharp reversal of stock prices when there is low volume. If you are day trading, be aware of large block trades and volume spikes indicating possible reversals of the current trends. Over the last 3 years, the month of June shows the highest percentage of program trading, leading to a spike in prices for a mid-summer high for the year. There is enough correlation during the week of July 13-16th being the high for the rest of the year, known as a seasonal trade. Just a friendly reminder for those who have been long term investors going into the summer months of July and August. The harmonic heartbeat of the indicies has been declining, indicating a narrowing trading range for day traders. As long as the harmonic heartbeat is trending downward, prices may creep upward. When there are spikes higher in the harmonic heartbeat, prices begin accelerating downward faster. The last recent spike upward in the harmonic heartbeat, took the Dow index down to 9800. The support of the signal lines is positive, with the critical area of 10300 for the Dow, SP-500 1116, and Nasd ironically at 1973.

The Best indicator to use for swing traders and long term investors is to use the McClelland Summation Index and apply the harmonic stock signal lines. For those who have Telechart 2000, the symbol is T2118, and those who don’t have Telechart 2000, you can check in the financial newspapers for the reading. These two numbers will be different, as explained by Telechart 2000. The next indicator should be the percentage of stock trading above their 200 day moving average. This indicator is still below the yellow and red harmonic clock signals, indicating further decline in the breadth of the market. (T2107 in tc2000) I wrote about this indicator earlier this year, the reading was above 90%, then declined to 40%, currently it is reading around 55%. While this drop falls within the Fibonacci ratio, the market has only declined from the high of 10737 to 9907, or 7.75%. The lowest recorded reading for this indicator was 1.8% of the stock trading above their 200 day moving average, just after the correction in 1987. The reading of 55% is the average over the last 9 years coming out of the secular bull market. Remember, we have never had two consecutive secular markets of the same type since the creation of the Fed, in 1913!

The rest of the month has economic reports, which will create quick profits for day traders, while the swing and long term investors may be in for a rocky ride till September. You must actively manage your portfolio, using options as insurance to protect your portfolio from long term declines. I will be writing more about the use of options for downside protection in the coming months. The Fed will be meeting at the end of the month, most expect them to raise rates at least ¼ of a point if not ½ point.

Also, the major geopolitical events will be occurring at the end of this month, expect an intensification of the violence and possible oil service disruptions.

God Bless
Doc

Memorial Day

2004-06-01T01:14:00.000-04:00

Memorial Day

I hope everyone in America has enjoyed and honored the Memorial Day
celebration.

This week, the market will be focused the upcoming Fed meeting. The
Fed is expected raise rates at least a quarter of a point. I have
said before, the Fed is always behind the curve when raising rates or
lowering them. They have excluded food and energy from their
calculations forecasting inflation. Since oil hit it's high of
$42.00, causing high gasoline prices for everyone. If you have done
any traveling over the last two weeks, you know how sticker shock has
affected your buying and driving habits. The U.S. economy is 100%
dependant on transportation industry. The real effects of inflation
will be felt next month when suppliers begin paying shipping fuel sir
charges. The cost of the transporting goods from California to the
mid-west has doubled in price on commodities. I expect inflation to
sweep through California's economy and move eastward across the U.S.
Meanwhile, Opec is trying to relieve fears of the 73' gas shortages,
but the sad fact is that over the last 20 years there are no new oil
refineries being built. If we could import all the oil we need, we
still cannot refine enough of it to lower prices. I am sure that
once some of the refineries begin producing heating oil in the fall,
we will see a big spike in prices again. Just in time for the
presidential election, along with the Fed raising rates, trying to
control inflation, but exacerbating inflation even more. The
cheerleaders are talking about how great the economy is; however,
they have always said that the market is a predictor of the economy 6-
9 months out. The market is declining after failing to make any new
highs and is predicting a slowing economy 6-9 months in the future.
For traders, there will be many opportunities to make money, only if
trading volume stays consistent. For long-term investors, they may
be watching paper profits disappearing once again. The next
quarter failed earnings report will be blamed on inflation and the
Fed for raising rates. The presidential cycle predicts next year to
be one of the worse for the current president if he wins the
election. Expect mixed signals over the summer months of trading,
while long-term investors have ignoring the market signals over the
last 5 years. Reality may begin to reach long-term investors as the
housing market begins to slow down with rising interest rates and
higher mortgage defaults. The housing bubble has been very
difficult to call, since the capital gains rules have change on
homes. If you live in home 2 out 5 years, all capital gains are not
taxed, and this has fueled many be first time homebuyers, all hoping
to make 50-100% increases when they sell their first home. As with
all bubbles, things appear normal, until mounting pressure causes a
panic. The baby boomers will have the most to loose, and will have
the greatest impact on the housing bubble collapsing prices. If you
have all your eggs in two baskets, the housing market and the stock
market, loosing both could be catastrophic, leading to more
government spending and bailouts. The government is deficit
spending, expecting the economy to rebound like in the 80's, not like
the 70's. The similarities now and the 70's are shockingly the same
with the economy, deficits, inflation, and geo-political events.
History does repeat its self and we have unfortunately have not learn
the lessons that she is trying to teach.

If this post sounds too negative, it is better to be prepared for the
worse, and hope for the best. If you are prepared for the worse, you
may be able to preserve or create more wealth while most are loosing
theirs.

I have posted some charts in a zip folder for you to look at, showing
my signal lines and how the market trades on a daily pattern,
mimicking the intra day patterns. The more you see the signal lines
work, the easier it will be for you to trade with them.

Thanks

God Bless All

Doc

Look Who's Talking

2004-05-19T00:44:00.000-04:00

Look who’s Talking?

It has been fun watching the cheerleaders finally see the light. After 5 years, the market has failed to set new all time highs, signifying a “new bull market”. One has to wonder why it was so important for them to always recommend buying stocks? Maybe it has to do with their advertising base? I wonder what they are paying the two cheerleaders to be eternally bullish? They are now questioning guests about a market that will trade sideways for the next 18 years…mmm Wonder where they have seen a stock chart of an 18-year secular market? You guessed it, my website. Do you think they would give me credit for pointing out the difference in cyclical market and secular markets? Now that most professional money managers are using the Harmonic Stock Clock, the small investor, swing trader, and day traders are the only ones listening to the “new bull market” mantra. Check out the history of program trading on the NYSE:

If you have not bought your copy of the Harmonic Stock Clock, now would be a good time to protect any profits you have left. It seems just in March, the cheerleaders paraded guest after guest urging people to buy stocks, now all those experts have taken losses. “The earning will be great, they say, but in every report I read, there are two problems with great earnings. A) They are not paying anything in the form of dividends, and B) there are “exceptions and one time charges” in almost all these reports. I won’t mention that 1/3 of the S&P stocks are still using per forma reports, and most are not expensing options costs yet. The good news is that you can still buy the Harmonic Stock Book, and preserve some of the wealth you have accumulated before it’s too late.

God Bless

Doc
http://www.doctrader.com

Housing Starts and Building Permits

2004-05-18T03:53:00.001-04:00

Housing Starts and Building Permits

by Doctrader

Tuesday’s report could send the market into a tailspin. Short-term traders need to watch the daily signal lines. I posted a chart for long-term traders on the title page of this group. The green signal lines and red signal lines may cross if negative news comes out about the housing market.

I feel that inflation fears are under estimated, once the Fed begins to raise rates, inflation will be compounded. The Fed has never been ahead of the curve with inflation or deflation. Oil will be at $45 per barrel by Memorial Day, and $54 by the Fourth of July. Going into the heart of the summer, buyers will be reluctant to risk going long stocks.

The China connection to inflation is still under the radar of most investors. The Chinese economy will drive the price of oil higher, while they are saber rattling against the primary chipmakers, the Taiwanese. The U.S. warning was issued after China, just days before Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian starts his second term, threatened to crush any steps towards independence "firmly and thoroughly at any cost."

The Chinese imports of oil have increased as much a 1/3 over the last year. They are stockpiling oil supplies when A) they go to war with Taiwan, and B) if the Iraqi war becomes a chemical battlefield. As a side benefit of their increasing demand for more oil, our gasoline prices will skyrocket this summer. Even if they were not increasing their demand for oil, the U.S. is incapable of meeting our own demand due to environmental concerns restricting any new oil refineries being built.

For traders, a good time to make money on the low volume this summer by trading options using chicken straddle or spread strategy. When trading low volume days, be sure to take note of the daily signal lines, sharp reversal can occur when crossing these lines.

Also, there were 5 sunspots facing earth yesterday, watched solar radiation spike to one of it’s highest levels during the India’s stock market collapse. Today there are 6 sunspots facing earth. Either up or down on Tuesday, it should prove to be volatile day. For those who want to know more about space weather go to: http://www.spaceweather.com/

Lastly, option expiration this Friday.

God Bless

Doctrader

This site should be used for educational and training purposes only.

Doctrader's Harmonic Stock Clock harmonic market cycles, trading and investing. No advice is given. No recommendations given.

You are considered to be over 18 years old.
When trading futures,currencies,commodities,
stocks,and options know the risks!

Use all Information on this site at your own risk.

Nervous week for long-term investors

2004-05-16T23:48:00.001-04:00

Nervous week for long-term investors

By Doctrader

Hi Doc ...do you plan do live trading??? If you do please let me know when and where it will be...I have installed a new hard drive with Windows XP and need to see you trade...Many Thanks and God Bless You R. J.

Hi Richard,

I do not plan to do live trading during the summer months. Maybe later this fall I will open a chat room for morning trades. Using the harmonic stock clock, there are approximately 3-4 trades per day where the signal lines are together. When prices move above or below at least 2 of the 3 harmonic signal lines, those are the best trades. If you are a swing trader, using the daily signal lines to go short or long depending on the same parameters, 2 out 3 signal lines crossing.

Nervous Week for Long Term Investors

The NASD index is the weakest, with the green signal line crossing down through the red signal line. Since March 14, 2003, this index has gained over 60% to the high on January 20,2004. It has tested the red signal line twice since March 2004, and has no supporting signal lines below the green signal line. We have had 9 bounces below the green signal line since March 2003; some of these bounces have bounced off the yellow signal line. Now that the yellow signal line has began to turn downward, if it does cross over the red signal line, the 60% gain over last year could be cut in half to 30% gain before things stabilize. That would bring the NASD down to the 1700 level.

The SP500 is still above the red signal line, but the green and yellow are descending. This will lead to some serious oscillations over the next week, unless the index collapses below the red signal line. If this index goes below 1000 over the next week, expect the "plunge protection team" to buy futures to help stabilize the down draft.

The Dow index is testing the red signal line, just as the SP500 index. However, the Dow index is below the red signal line. I would expect this index to bounce if prices can trade above the green signal line intra day. If this happens, the major resistance of the yellow signal line is at 10292.

Good luck traders.

God Bless

Doctrader

This site should be used for educational and training purposes only.

Doctrader's Harmonic Stock Clock harmonic market cycles, trading and investing. No advice is given. No recommendations given.

You are considered to be over 18 years old.
When trading futures,currencies,commodities,
stocks,and options know the risks!

Use all Information on this site at your own risk.

Sell in May and Go Away

2004-05-14T20:54:00.000-04:00

Sell in May and Go Away

This month's sell off began on May 4 and May 5, when the Dow Index
failed to break above the yellow signal line. Once the green signal
line crosses the yellow signal line, prices usually fall to the next
level of support at the red signal line. Over the next 3 days, if
the yellow signal line falls below the red signal line, we will begin
a cyclical bear market lasting 9 to 18 months. This is not good news
if you are still in growth stocks. You just never know if the market
will begin a panic sell off to new lows. Despite all the optimism by
the cheerleaders, nothing can stop the twinge of panic in the bull
herd stampeding to new low. However, this is the first test of the
red signal line will usually hold for a bounce upward to the yellow
signal line. For those who have the harmonic stock clock program,
notice that on Thursday, the Dow index closed on a harmonic base
number and on Friday the index close 1 point off a harmonic base
number. All "black Monday's start with a Thursday, Friday, sell off,
cumulating into Mondays major sell off. Today's sell off would not
be a "black Monday" sell off, the market was highly contained, there
were no trading curbs in effect. The advance/ decline line would
normally cause the market to hit the curbs, but then program trading
would have been halted, so today's trading was very orchestrated to
keep program trading open. Monday's close was again on a harmonic
base number, while the lows exceeded the Harmonic Heartbeat of 122
today. I suspect the market will try to bounce within the next 3
days, barring any geopolitical events that will scare the bulls even
more. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar is surging, as always when there
is a worldwide flight to quality. The U.S. Dollar, as predicted once
it crossed the yellow line, has moved upward to the red signal
line. In the post at the beginning of the year, "home work", I
explained the relationship between commodities, bonds, currencies,
and the stock market. I also explained why the Fed is not your
friend, and they are always "behind the curve" when raising or
lowering interest rates. For traders, this is the best time to make
money, when prices are falling, since they always fall faster than
they rise. Howerver, for long term investors, it may well be nail
biting time as they watch their paper profits disappear once again.
This year, unlike last year, may be the year of "sell in May and go
away".

God Bless
Doc

Doctrader's Harmonic Stock Clock

2004-05-09T13:57:00.001-04:00

Doctrader is here to help you find a better solutions for your long term financial wealth. If you have been a "buy and hold' investor for the last 10, 20, or 30 years, it may be hard for you to understand that the financial world of investing has changed. The Market Media Matrix has everyone in it's grip with the by merging all informational sources into one big conglomeration. Thereby narrowing your ranges of independent thought and creative ideas.
There are many financial tools available to you, through the internet and through this web site.

Yet, despite all the available resources at your disposal, most people will not take the first step in changing what they have been doing financial.

If by reading my thoughts and learning from my experiences (ie.mistakes) , I can get you mentally prepared for the next bear market, then my mission is accomplished.

God Bless

Doctrader

This site should be used for educational and training purposes only.

Doctrader's Harmonic Stock Clock harmonic market cycles, trading and investing. No advice is given. No recommendations given.

You are considered to be over 18 years old.
When trading futures, currencies, commodities,
stocks, and options know the risks!

Use all Information on this site at your own risk.