Look Who's Talking

Look who’s Talking?

It has been fun watching the cheerleaders finally see the light. After 5 years, the market has failed to set new all time highs, signifying a “new bull market”. One has to wonder why it was so important for them to always recommend buying stocks? Maybe it has to do with their advertising base? I wonder what they are paying the two cheerleaders to be eternally bullish? They are now questioning guests about a market that will trade sideways for the next 18 years…mmm Wonder where they have seen a stock chart of an 18-year secular market? You guessed it, my website. Do you think they would give me credit for pointing out the difference in cyclical market and secular markets? Now that most professional money managers are using the Harmonic Stock Clock, the small investor, swing trader, and day traders are the only ones listening to the “new bull market” mantra. Check out the history of program trading on the NYSE:

If you have not bought your copy of the Harmonic Stock Clock, now would be a good time to protect any profits you have left. It seems just in March, the cheerleaders paraded guest after guest urging people to buy stocks, now all those experts have taken losses. “The earning will be great, they say, but in every report I read, there are two problems with great earnings. A) They are not paying anything in the form of dividends, and B) there are “exceptions and one time charges” in almost all these reports. I won’t mention that 1/3 of the S&P stocks are still using per forma reports, and most are not expensing options costs yet. The good news is that you can still buy the Harmonic Stock Book, and preserve some of the wealth you have accumulated before it’s too late.

God Bless

Doc
http://www.doctrader.com

Housing Starts and Building Permits

Housing Starts and Building Permits

by Doctrader

Tuesday’s report could send the market into a tailspin. Short-term traders need to watch the daily signal lines. I posted a chart for long-term traders on the title page of this group. The green signal lines and red signal lines may cross if negative news comes out about the housing market.

I feel that inflation fears are under estimated, once the Fed begins to raise rates, inflation will be compounded. The Fed has never been ahead of the curve with inflation or deflation. Oil will be at $45 per barrel by Memorial Day, and $54 by the Fourth of July. Going into the heart of the summer, buyers will be reluctant to risk going long stocks.

The China connection to inflation is still under the radar of most investors. The Chinese economy will drive the price of oil higher, while they are saber rattling against the primary chipmakers, the Taiwanese. The U.S. warning was issued after China, just days before Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian starts his second term, threatened to crush any steps towards independence "firmly and thoroughly at any cost."

The Chinese imports of oil have increased as much a 1/3 over the last year. They are stockpiling oil supplies when A) they go to war with Taiwan, and B) if the Iraqi war becomes a chemical battlefield. As a side benefit of their increasing demand for more oil, our gasoline prices will skyrocket this summer. Even if they were not increasing their demand for oil, the U.S. is incapable of meeting our own demand due to environmental concerns restricting any new oil refineries being built.

For traders, a good time to make money on the low volume this summer by trading options using chicken straddle or spread strategy. When trading low volume days, be sure to take note of the daily signal lines, sharp reversal can occur when crossing these lines.

Also, there were 5 sunspots facing earth yesterday, watched solar radiation spike to one of it’s highest levels during the India’s stock market collapse. Today there are 6 sunspots facing earth. Either up or down on Tuesday, it should prove to be volatile day. For those who want to know more about space weather go to: http://www.spaceweather.com/

Lastly, option expiration this Friday.


God Bless

Doctrader

This site should be used for educational and training purposes only.

Doctrader's Harmonic Stock Clock harmonic market cycles, trading and investing. No advice is given. No recommendations given.

You are considered to be over 18 years old.
When trading futures,currencies,commodities,
stocks,and options know the risks!

Use all Information on this site at your own risk.

Nervous week for long-term investors

Nervous week for long-term investors

By Doctrader

Hi Doc ...do you plan do live trading??? If you do please let me know when and where it will be...I have installed a new hard drive with Windows XP and need to see you trade...Many Thanks and God Bless You R. J.

Hi Richard,

I do not plan to do live trading during the summer months. Maybe later this fall I will open a chat room for morning trades. Using the harmonic stock clock, there are approximately 3-4 trades per day where the signal lines are together. When prices move above or below at least 2 of the 3 harmonic signal lines, those are the best trades. If you are a swing trader, using the daily signal lines to go short or long depending on the same parameters, 2 out 3 signal lines crossing.

Nervous Week for Long Term Investors

The NASD index is the weakest, with the green signal line crossing down through the red signal line. Since March 14, 2003, this index has gained over 60% to the high on January 20,2004. It has tested the red signal line twice since March 2004, and has no supporting signal lines below the green signal line. We have had 9 bounces below the green signal line since March 2003; some of these bounces have bounced off the yellow signal line. Now that the yellow signal line has began to turn downward, if it does cross over the red signal line, the 60% gain over last year could be cut in half to 30% gain before things stabilize. That would bring the NASD down to the 1700 level.

The SP500 is still above the red signal line, but the green and yellow are descending. This will lead to some serious oscillations over the next week, unless the index collapses below the red signal line. If this index goes below 1000 over the next week, expect the "plunge protection team" to buy futures to help stabilize the down draft.

The Dow index is testing the red signal line, just as the SP500 index. However, the Dow index is below the red signal line. I would expect this index to bounce if prices can trade above the green signal line intra day. If this happens, the major resistance of the yellow signal line is at 10292.

Good luck traders.

God Bless


Doctrader

This site should be used for educational and training purposes only.

Doctrader's Harmonic Stock Clock harmonic market cycles, trading and investing. No advice is given. No recommendations given.

You are considered to be over 18 years old.
When trading futures,currencies,commodities,
stocks,and options know the risks!

Use all Information on this site at your own risk.