Facebook Fallacy : The Narcissist Network

Facebook Fallacy : The Narcissist Network

by Doctrader

Hard to believe, just 12 short years ago I was watching the
CNBC cheerleading channel spectacle of Palm Pilot's IPO!



The CNBC's cheerleaders pumped Palm Pilot's IPO and dumped massive marketing dollars on every financial television network to bring in virgin internet day traders.  I say virgin traders because they had yet to feel the effects of a Savage  Bear Market that was coming.  The crushing of the Nasdaq  Composite Index, down over 80% over the next 3 years, is still being felt by those who rely on the Nasdaq market. 



So, being a good trader, you have to develop a memory like a steel trap, so upon seeing the media frezy around Facebook's IPO, I had to Google the past to see if my memory was correct.  After all, I watched the Palm Pilot Spectacle from my newly installed high speed Comcast internet connection.   Trading from home... a new concept...  lol...  Anywhoo...the ipo's price was at $38... first trade print was $58..... then strait to the moon... $165.  I believe I called it at $158 a share....and it fell back to earth to $95 a share by the end of the day.  The sad thing about it... i don't think you could short it... there was just not enough shares to go around... with all the inside deals and private placement orders.    I suspect history will repeat itself with Facebook's IPO.


As once blogger said  just  12 years ago....
  "...no matter the guest’s area of expertise may well have been offshore drilling.  Or foreign policy.  The hyperventilating,  drooling, and shortness of breath was worthy of a brothel.  I recall the “Countdown to Palm” timer, a little “bug” in a television’s corner which kept tabs — to the thousandth of a second —" Farewell To The Most Widely Anticipated IPO Ever?

So flash forward to today's Facebooks Fallacy as an investment.  REALY?  How many failed ipos have to happen before investors wise up?  Facebook's billionaire insiders will sell to the public as as much as 57% of the offering!  I suspect prices will mimic those of Palm Pilot's IPO on the first day.  You will see all the happy smiling cheerleaders tell you how great Facebook is....

According to Birinyi analyst Kevin Pleines, 18 of the 30 stocks are below their IPO price and 24 of the 30 are below their opening price on their first day of trading.

This will be Wall Streets's biggest payoff since Google's ipo in the internet sector.  I suspect they are planning something very Big on Friday, after all this is options expiration day.  Looking for a 500 point move either up or down, depending the 100-200 millions shares of the Dow Jones Index which have to trade!.

When I log onto facebook... all my social friends want me to play the latest "time trap games".  Maybe i am just anti-social...or  i would rather play real golf and drink real beer and eat real food. I have blocked most updates on all those who annoy me with their narcisstic behavior. 

Complete Control over your news feed!

For those who send me too many post in my timeline, i have chosen "i, except the "most important updates".... While this gives me more control....advertisers are losing market share because of these filters for messages.  The future of Facebook is not very clear, it could be the next JDS Uniphase or another Palm Pilot.  

 I understand those over 50's are not really sure what the heck Facebook is used for.  If that wasn't bad enough for those over 50, sometimes their smartphone's are reporting automatically where they are eating and drinking by "checking in" on Four Square!  

The real value of Facebook is data mining, not advertising.  
Advertisers "Like" the Narcissist Network ,Facebook,  which changes it's privacy rules and term of service about as often as Mark Zuckenberg change's his hoodie.  
So... expect more confusing Terms of Service changes to go along with Facebook's new IPO, after all... those greedy businessmen will want to sell you.... a car...?? a widget?? or something..... 

Good Luck

Doc



Doc's Harmonic stock Clock is intended for stocks, options, futures, commodities, and currencies trading.This site should be used for Educational purposes only. No advice is given. No recommendations given. You are considered to be over 18 years old. Doctraders Harmonic Stock Clock is based on technical market indicators which may predict short term and long term market trend reversals. Doctrader is not an investment adviser but has been involved in the markets since 1985. No system of trading or investing can prevent losses, you should do your own "due diligence" when determining the suitability of the information contained within this or other websites mentioned in this blog. Use all Information on this site at your own risk. Best Wishes Doctrader